$AADX 0.50 Developing

Notable posts

• @Ashton_1nvests mixed 5 eng

  $AADX is down 36% from its $20 IPO after a Q2 "miss" of ($1.04) vs $0.01 expected. I spent two weeks in the filings for a deep dive. The headline is wrong about the quarter. Here's what's actually going on. The miss was IPO accounting noise. $110.1M of IPO-triggered stock comp, plus transaction and integration costs. Strip it out and Q2 was a record: $167.3M revenue (a beat vs ~$155.8M consensus), $36.4M adjusted EBITDA, up 38.5%. Guidance came in line. So why is it still at $12.83? That's the real question. The deep dive answers it: one shareholder still owns roughly three-quarters of the company, the EBITDA isn't converting to cash yet, and three customers drive most of the revenue. I ran full bear, base, and bull valuation scenarios off 2026 guidance. That's all in the deep dive, along with the balance sheet and backlog work. Bottom line: better business than the GAAP numbers, worse stock setup than the growth suggests. Watchlist, not buy-the-dip.

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• @Ashton_1nvests bullish 4 eng

  5/ Applied Aerospace & Defense | $AADX AADX gives me exposure to growing defense, space and precision strike spending through a business that is still very early in its public market story. https://t.co/Zd09fGVHIZ

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