$CMI 0.30 Weak

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 2010 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Meta $META is reportedly developing a cloud business called Meta Compute to sell access to excess AI capacity, per Bloomberg. The company is considering offering AI model access hosted on Meta infrastructure, similar to AWS Bedrock, raw AI compute capacity closer to CoreWeave, and developer access to Meta’s data centers, chips, and models. The market was split on its views today of the situationL if Meta has enough excess compute to sell, it suggests parts of the market may not be as compute-constrained as believed, which could pressure neoclouds like $CRWV $NBIS $IREN and raise questions about future capex intensity for semis. All the neoclouds were down 7-10% today. However, if Meta realizes AI compute and cloud services can become a major business line, it may end up spending even more to compete with $AMZN, $MSFT, and $GOOGL, turning “idle compute” into the start of a much larger Meta Cloud buildout. $META was up 8% today. 2. Palantir CEO Alex Karp was on CNBC today and criticized frontier AI labs for overselling models, raising IP/trust concerns, and pushing costly token usage without enough real enterprise outcomes. His main argument came down to one point: critical infrastructure and enterprises cannot just plug in LLMs and hope they work. He argued that models need an application layer, Palantir’s ontology, to make AI safe, auditable, and operational. His broader message was that frontier labs are selling tokens, while Palantir is on the fontlines working with businesses to implement AI in a way that transforms their enterprise vs trying to increase token spend. 3. Micron $MU is committing $250M to Trump Accounts as America marks its 250th year, aiming to give 1M American children a financial head start. For U.S. employees, Micron will match up to $1,000 per child, while children in its communities across seven states will receive $250 seed contributions. The initiative comes alongside Micron’s more than $200B U.S. manufacturing investment, expected to create 90,000+ jobs. Micron also expanded its strategic partnership with General Motors $GM, giving GM long-term supply of LPDRAM, NOR, and UFS NAND for AI-enabled in-cabin experiences and advanced driver assistance systems. The agreement is backed by Micron’s $2B modernization of its Manassas, Virginia fab, which began production this year. 4. Robinhood $HOOD announced a massive slate of product updates at its World Is Flat event: 1M+ funded customers outside the U.S., Robinhood Crypto launching in the UK and Canada, a license to expand brokerage services in Singapore, maker orders for U.S. crypto customers, Agentic Trading for crypto, and the launch of Robinhood Chain with AI-native token swaps, liquidity pool discovery, and support for tokenized real-world assets. Robinhood is also rolling out EU perpetual futures for commodities, ETFs, and FX with up to 10x leverage, Robinhood Cortex for Gold subscribers, and Robinhood Earn, allowing eligible U.S. customers to lend USDG onchain through self-custody and target an estimated 7% APY. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.1M contracts, $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $META with 1.5M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $MSFT with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 899K contracts, $AMZN with 897K contracts, $PLTR with 860K contracts, $SPCX with 828K contracts, and $INTC with 679K contracts. 6. Nasdaq $NDAQ said companies listing on its exchange raised $129.3B in the first half of 2026, marking the strongest first half for listings in U.S. exchange history. 7. Japanese retail investors are ramping up leveraged stock bets as risk appetite heats up globally. Margin buying on the Tokyo Stock Exchange has climbed to about $40B, with levels recently hitting the highest since 1994. Japan’s margin ratio has risen to 6–8, well above the 10-year average of around 4, while individual names like Kioxia and Fujikura are showing extreme leverage. The trend mirrors rising margin debt across the U.S., Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, raising concerns that stretched positioning could amplify volatility if markets reverse. 8. U.S. employers announced 45,849 job cuts in June, down 53% from May and the lowest monthly total since December 2025, per Challenger. AI was the top cited layoff reason for the fourth straight month, tied to 14K cuts in June and 101,743 cuts YTD. Hiring plans were up 10% in the first half of the year, though June hiring plans fell 44% from May. 9. Retail investors accounted for just 6% of total Magnificent 7 $META $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $TSLA $NVDA trading volume over the five trading days ending Friday, the lowest level in 4 years. Retail participation was lower than on roughly 85% of trading days since 2022, a sharp reversal from periods in 2023 and 2024 when retail made up more than 20% of Mag 7 volume and stayed above 15% for much of 2025. The 5-day average of retail Mag 7 trading volume has fallen to about 25M shares, the lowest in at least 18 months and down 79% from the April 2025 peak of roughly 120M shares. 10. BYD is on track to retake the global fully electric vehicle sales lead from Tesla $TSLA in Q2. BYD delivered 557,090 BEVs during the quarter, while Tesla is expected to report around 396,500 deliveries next week. BYD’s June sales across all vehicle types rose 5.5% to 403,472 units, with overseas markets accounting for 43% of sales. Tesla Korea also raised Model 3 and Model Y prices by up to $4,500 one day after passing the government’s EV subsidy evaluation. 11. Wells Fargo says it is bullish into Q3 and expects a strong summer rally before potential midterm-driven volatility in September. The firm says positioning has reset, early July seasonality turns positive, earnings season should be strong, tariff refunds could support profits, AI infrastructure dips remain buyable, and “Trump Accounts” could add up to $20B of price-insensitive inflows in Q3. Its 8 tactical ideas include $AEIS for AI infrastructure and data center growth, $ARGX for its Vyvgart Phase 3 myositis readout, $CMI for prime power demand and EPA 2027 upside, $KDP for improving beverage trends, $MSCI for data and quant investing demand, $PANW for cybersecurity consolidation and AI exposure, $PLNT for better comps, and $URI for rental rate inflection and non-res construction recovery. 12. Global gold-backed ETFs saw 38.3 tonnes of outflows last week, the largest weekly decline since September 2022. In dollar terms, withdrawals hit a record $4.7B, led by North America at 23.6 tonnes, followed by Asia and Europe. The largest U.S. gold ETF, $GLD, saw $2B in outflows alone, bringing June withdrawals to $3.2B and putting it on pace for its second-worst month since February 2021. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @TrendSpider neutral 103 eng

  Scanning for leading stocks (outperforming at least 85% of the $SPY) near the 50SMA... ⬇️👀 Texas Instruments $TXN Seagate $STX Western Digital $WDC GE Vernova $GEV Corning $GLW Warner Bros Discovery $WBD Nucor $NUE Franklin Resources $BEN Cummins $CMI FedEx $FDX Caterpillar $CAT Viatris $VTRS Cisco $CSCO

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• @wallstengine bullish 82 eng

  Wells Fargo says it is bullish into Q3 and expects a strong summer rally before midterm-led volatility in September. Their setup: > Positioning has reset > Seasonality turns positive in early July > EPS season should be strong > Tariff refunds could help earnings > Buy the dip in AI infrastructure > “Trump Accounts” could add $20B of price-insensitive inflows in Q3 Their 8 tactical ideas: $AEIS: AI infrastructure, semi, and data center growth reset $ARGX: Vyvgart Phase 3 myositis readout $CMI: prime power demand, EPA 2027 upside, tight truck market $KDP: improving beverage trends and coffee margin upside $MSCI: demand for data and quant investing tailwinds $PANW: cybersecurity consolidation and AI exposure $PLNT: better comps as recent headwinds ease $URI: rental rate inflection and non-res construction recovery

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