$GOOGL 0.68 Rising Signal

Notable posts

• @amitisinvesting neutral 3429 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Google $GOOGL is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6x to 10x more efficiently than its latest TPUs, per The Information. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and simplifying inference decisions. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to help ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency. 2. Microsoft $MSFT is expanding its partnership with AMD $AMD and will deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale systems on Azure for frontier AI inference. The platform combines MI455X GPUs, Venice CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, with shipments to Microsoft beginning in the second half of 2026. Azure will also add new AMD-powered virtual machines for agentic AI, data pipelines, and semiconductor design, marking a broader adoption of AMD’s full AI infrastructure stack. 3. AUM in U.S. leveraged semiconductor ETFs has fallen $63B from the June peak to $100B, the lowest level since late April. That marks a 39% decline, the largest drawdown since April 2025, when assets more than halved from their August high. The semiconductor unwind accounts for 63% of the broader $100B drop in AUM across all U.S. leveraged ETFs over the same period. The selloff follows a massive ramp, with assets in these funds nearly tripling between late March and the June peak. Even after the pullback, leveraged semiconductor ETF assets are still up 400% from January 2023 levels. 4. Archer $ACHR and Anduril unveiled Thunder, an autonomous attack VTOL aircraft, with first flight planned for 2027. The runway-independent hybrid-electric aircraft is designed to operate autonomously alongside crewed attack and assault aircraft. The dual-use platform features tiltrotors and modular payloads for both defense and commercial missions. Full-scale surrogate flights have already been completed, and Archer plans to announce its first commercial customers later this week. 5. Chinese AI models are taking record share among U.S. firms on OpenRouter. The proportion of tokens used by American companies running through Chinese models has climbed to roughly 58%, a record high. OpenRouter lets developers access and compare models from multiple providers, making it a useful real-world signal of AI model adoption. Chinese model usage has tripled since mid-January, overtaking U.S. peers on the platform for the first time in March and briefly hitting 63% in early July. At the start of 2025, Chinese models were under 10% of usage, while U.S. models were around 80%. DeepSeek has become the most popular choice among American firms in recent months. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.1M contracts, $TSLA with 2.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.8M contracts, $MU with 951K contracts, $MSFT with 884K contracts, $AMZN with 691K contracts, $INTC with 640K contracts, $SPCX with 606K contracts, $AMD with 506K contracts, and $GOOGL with 492K contracts. 7. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on CoreWeave $CRWV with a $140 price target. Analyst Tal Liani raised FY26 capex estimates to $34B from $29B, saying capex remains a key indicator of buildout progress and hardware pricing. BofA expects Q2 operating margin of 2.4%, slightly below the Street at 2.8%, but sees margins improving through the rest of the year as active power drives revenue recognition. By Q4, BofA expects operating margin to reach 14.6%, up from 1.0% in Q1, showing strong operating leverage. The firm also pushed back on competition concerns from SpaceX and Meta, arguing AI compute demand still far exceeds supply, making access to capacity the real bottleneck rather than provider choice. 8. IREN $IREN raised its 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to over $4B, up from its prior target of $3.7B. The company announced new AI cloud contracts representing $2.8B in total contract value, with approximately 85% of the updated ARR target now under contract. Goldman Sachs estimates the newly announced contracts represent an additional roughly $1B in contracted revenue with an average term of around 3 years. IREN also said recent agreements include customer prepayments covering about 45% of GPU capex, with customer contracts having a weighted average term of approximately 4 years. 9. UBS says Micron $MU could repurchase more than 40% of its shares by the end of 2028. The firm expects Micron to generate over $40B in free cash flow through 2028, and once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, UBS says the company could potentially use that cash to buy back more than 40% of its shares at the current price. Morgan Stanley said that memory stocks are trading at attractive prices but their best risk to reward names in the semi space are $NVDA Nvidia and $AVGO Broadcom. 10. Bloom Energy $BE shares are trading lower after New Mexico regulators rejected permits for a gas pipeline planned to supply Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center for the second time. The decision could delay the campus, which is expected to use up to 2.5GW of Bloom Energy’s gas-powered fuel cells. Energy Transfer may now pursue an alternative pipeline route. 11. Intel $INTC plans additional layoffs in its data center group as part of a broader effort to become a more focused and efficient company, CNBC reports. Intel said the unit is realigning roles and skills for long-term success, though the number of affected employees was not disclosed. 12. Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to what the White House calls Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. products. The tariffs cover different categories of Canadian imports, including products ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and apply even if goods originate under USMCA. Exemptions include energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, fish, critical minerals, and certain other products. The tariffs take effect 30 days after signing. WALL STREET IS THE GREATST SHOW ON EARTH,

  view on X →
• @StockSavvyShay neutral 3410 eng

  UPDATED FIB LEVELS FOR POPULAR STOCKS AI Utilities • $IREN $51 • $NBIS $177 • $CIFR $17 • $CRWV $100 AI Power • $EOSE $7 • $BE $237 • $NVTS $22 • $VRT $282 AI Hardware • $NVDA $192 • $TSM $408 • $ASML $1,618 • $MU $730 AI Applications • $PLTR $129 • $NOW $109 • $CRWD $598 • $SNOW $181 AI Connectivity • $AVGO $377 • $ALAB $305 • $CRDO $195 • $MRVL $236 Space • $RKLB $106 • $ASTS $89 • $PL $31 • $BKSY $32 Quantum • $IONQ $52 • $RGTI $15 • $QBTS $20 • $INFQ $13 Drones • $ONDS $10 • $AVAV $175 • $KTOS $52 • $UMAC $24 Nuclear • $OKLO $50 • $UUUU $12 • $GEV $906 • $LEU $151 Photonics • $AAOI $164 • $LITE $698 • $COHR $283 • $AEHR $76 CPU Bottleneck • $AMD $383 • $INTC $91 • $ARM $299 • $AMKR $57 Physical AI • $TSLA $382 • $AMZN $230 • $GOOGL $357 • $ISRG $394

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting bullish 2828 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Alphabet $GOOGL delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage. 2. AMD $AMD and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia. 3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran. 4. Tesla $TSLA reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026. 5. Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $TSLA with 844K contracts, $AMZN with 828K contracts, $MU with 803K contracts, $SMCI with 746K contracts, $SPCX with 745K contracts, $MSFT with 722K contracts, $INTC with 548K contracts, and $PLTR with 540K contracts. 7. Google $GOOGL raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure. 8. ServiceNow $NOW delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123. 9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $PYPL. 10. Apple $AAPL is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability. 11. Baird reiterated Nebius $NBIS at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market. 12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting neutral 2740 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Citadel bought the bulk of Situational Awareness’ public-equities portfolio after the firm’s assets reportedly fell from $45B to around $10B, with the fund said to have been running roughly 4x leverage. Goldman was involved in the sale talks, while Millennium also submitted a bid. The context is brutal: Citadel itself helped fuel surprise rate-hike fears into FOMC, the market then sold off aggressively, and high-beta semiconductor names saw extreme drawdowns that compounded pressure across the space. With Situational Awareness heavily levered into that unwind, margin pressure appears to have forced the fund to unload public assets at distressed levels. Citadel then stepped in as the buyer, effectively taking the other side of the liquidation after helping spark the narrative that contributed to the selloff. The private Anthropic stake remains, and Situational Awareness will continue operating as a private investment firm with a reported $5B stake in Anthropic. Semis rebounded and had their best day in a year as the market may have interpreted the liquidation as a bottoming event to the structural deleveraging that took place. 2. Amazon $AMZN reported a strong Q2’26, with revenue up 20% YoY to $200.6B vs $196.47B expected and operating income up 43% YoY to $27.5B vs $23.53B expected. AWS revenue grew 37% YoY to $42.2B vs $40.5B expected, with AWS operating margin reaching 39.4% vs 33.8% expected. North America revenue came in at $116.2B, while International revenue rose 15% YoY to $42.2B. EPS was $5.75, helped by a $53.4B non-operating gain primarily tied to Amazon’s Anthropic investment. Q3 revenue guidance of $197B–$202B came in below the $204.07B estimate, while operating income guidance of $22.5B–$26.5B was roughly in line. Management said AWS posted its fastest growth in 18 quarters, with both AI and chips surpassing $25B run rates, while advertising grew 26% YoY. 3. Apple $AAPL reported Q3’26 revenue of $109.42B vs $108.85B expected, up 16.4% YoY, with EPS of $2.02 vs $1.89 expected, up 28.7% YoY. iPhone revenue grew 21.7% YoY to $54.25B, Mac revenue jumped 28.7% YoY to $10.35B, and Products revenue rose 18.1% YoY to $78.68B. Services missed estimates at $30.74B, while Greater China also came in below expectations at $18.82B, though still up 22.4% YoY. Operating income beat at $35.7B, net income reached $29.79B, and 9-month operating cash flow rose 43.1% YoY to $117B. Apple also declared a $0.27/share dividend and said its active device installed base hit a new all-time high across all major product categories and regions. 4. Tesla $TSLA is reportedly considering a separation of its China business ahead of a potential SpaceX $SPCX deal, per WSJ. Advisers have discussed options including a spinoff, sale, or closure, while executives have been told to prepare for a possible split, though plans remain early and could change. A standalone China unit would create a regulatory firewall between Tesla and SpaceX, a major U.S. defense contractor, helping address concerns around Chinese customer data, dual-use technology, and Beijing oversight. China represented about 18% of Tesla’s sales in the first half of 2026 and includes two major Shanghai factories, while SpaceX generated 20.9% of its 2025 business from the U.S. government. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.8M contracts, $MSFT with 1.9M contracts, $TSLA with 1.6M contracts, $AMZN with 1.2M contracts, $AAPL with 1.0M contracts, $META with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 984K contracts, $INTC with 753K contracts, $SPCX with 685K contracts, and $IREN with 569K contracts. 6. OpenAI reportedly cut prices for GPT-5.6, per Axios. Pricing for GPT-5.6 Luna was reduced by roughly 80% to $0.20 per million input tokens, while GPT-5.6 Terra pricing was cut by 20% to $2 per million input tokens. 7. U.S. Q2 advance GDP came in at 1.5% vs 2.0% expected, while initial jobless claims were 197K vs 200K expected and continued claims came in at 1.782M vs 1.795M expected. Inflation was largely in line, with headline PCE at 3.7% YoY and -0.1% MoM, while core PCE came in at 3.3% YoY and 0.1% MoM vs 0.2% expected. Personal spending rose 0.3% MoM vs 0.4% expected, personal income increased 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, and real personal spending matched estimates at 0.4% MoM. 8. AUM in South Korea’s leveraged ETFs has fallen by $37B, or roughly 70%, from its all-time high just over 30 days ago, bringing total assets down to about $16B, the lowest since early April. The unwind follows a massive 500% surge since the start of 2026, with domestic-listed funds driving most of the decline and making up around 70% of total leveraged ETF assets. The collapse in leveraged products comes as Korea’s KOSPI rebounded nearly 15% alongside a broader rally in global chip stocks. 9. DeepSeek is reportedly targeting a 1GW AI data center buildout, with plans for a new campus in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, while also leasing additional capacity, per Bloomberg. At least part of the compute is expected to come online by late 2027 or early 2028, though it remains unclear which chips will power the project. The buildout would be larger than any AI facility currently operated by a Chinese company, but still below the 3GW and 5GW AI campuses being developed in the U.S. Chinese rival https://t.co/I2N30dKtXk is also pursuing a 1GW project using only domestically produced chips. 10. $GOOGL Google is backing Anthropic’s planned Texas AI campus, with Nexus Data Centers reportedly in advanced talks for $15B in financing led by Morgan Stanley, per WSJ. The project would include a 1.6GW data center campus and natural-gas power plant in Hubbard, Texas. Anthropic has signed four data-center leases and related power-purchase agreements, while Google would guarantee billions of dollars in lease and power obligations if Anthropic defaults and is expected to receive roughly a 20% equity stake in the project. The campus would run on Google TPUs co-designed with Broadcom, with the chips financed separately through a vendor-financing agreement between Anthropic and Broadcom. 11. The EU opened its AI gigafactory tender, with Brussels set to choose up to 7 projects backed by as much as €10B in EU and national funding and expected to draw at least €20B in private capital. Each facility would house at least 100,000 advanced AI chips, roughly 4x the scale of current EU AI factories, supporting frontier model training, fine-tuning, and inference while giving compute access to startups, industry, researchers, and public agencies. The projects are expected to more than double Europe’s existing 19-factory AI network, while also creating demand for European-designed AI processors and eventually supporting domestic chip manufacturing. Bids close November 12, with awards expected in July 2027. 12. Amazon $AMZN said it is raising 2026 cash CapEx to $220B, up from its prior estimate of about $200B, largely because higher memory costs are pushing infrastructure spend higher. The company said that even at this level, it still will not have enough capacity to satisfy all demand in 2026, and expects the same capacity constraint to continue into 2027. Amazon added that demand already visible for 2028 is “striking,” while emphasizing that it typically buys servers and networking equipment only a few months before deployment, giving it strong visibility before committing capital. Management said if the demand is not there, it will not spend on the equipment. I know I say it everyday, but today is one of those days that reminds you... WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting neutral 2558 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Palantir $PLTR and Nvidia $NVDA expanded their partnership to deliver sovereign AI for the U.S. government and critical infrastructure. The partnership combines Nvidia AI infrastructure and Nemotron models with Palantir’s platforms, allowing agencies to deploy models on proprietary data. Palantir CEO Alex Karp said: “Combining Palantir infrastructure with NVIDIA’s AI and Nemotron models will allow the U.S. government to unleash the full power of LLMs while removing the underlying security risks and rational concerns around proprietary insights migrating into the weights of closed models." 2. Rocket Lab $RKLB announced a definitive agreement to acquire Iridium $IRDM for $54/share in a cash-and-stock deal, implying an enterprise value of roughly $8B. This is a major move because it pushes Rocket Lab beyond space infrastructure and deeper into vertically integrated space communications with recurring, high-margin subscription revenue. Iridium adds a global satellite network, accelerates direct-to-device and space connectivity, and gives Rocket Lab the ability to design, build, launch, operate, and now monetize satellites through long-term communications services. 3. Robinhood $HOOD continues to show strong product momentum. Vlad Tenev, CEO, shared that Robinhood Banking has surpassed $3B in deposits and 200K customers, up from $1.6B and 110K at the end of March. Agentic trading has also seen 50K+ customers open accounts in its first few weeks, with millions of dollars traded daily across equities and options. Robinhood now has 50K+ funded custodial accounts just three months after launch, while 855K+ customers received allocation in the SpaceX IPO through IPO Access. 4. Hedge funds sold the most U.S. information technology equities in the week ending June 25 since Goldman’s data began in 2016, even more than during the August 2024 Nasdaq correction. Overall, hedge funds sold the most U.S. equities since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” selloff. Magnificent 7 exposure has also fallen to 14.5% of total U.S. hedge fund exposure, near a 3-year low, after dropping 7 percentage points since the start of 2026, the biggest six-month decline since the 2022 bear market. 5. Agility Robotics is going public via Churchill Capital Corp XI $CCXI in a deal valuing the humanoid robotics company at $2.5B pre-money. The transaction is expected to raise $620M+, including a $200M PIPE led by Foxconn, with the combined company set to trade as $AGLT. Agility says it has $300M+ in multi-year orders for its Digit v5 robot, with backers including Nvidia, Amazon, SoftBank, and Foxconn. 6. Google $GOOGL has reportedly capped Meta’s $META use of Gemini AI models due to computing capacity constraints, per Financial Times. The limits have affected some of Meta’s internal projects, with staff told to use AI tokens more efficiently. Meta had been using Gemini to automate safety workflows, but is now leaning more on its own Muse Spark model to reduce reliance on external AI models. 7. Micron $MU is now a top 10 holding in the S&P 500 with a 1.9% weighting, reflecting just how important memory has become in the AI trade. Meanwhile, Nvidia $NVDA has fallen from closer to 8.5% of the index to 6.99%, while Apple $AAPL has dropped from around 7.5% to 6.18%. 8. Anthropic reportedly renegotiated part of its Amazon deal, shifting Claude pricing from compute hours to token-based usage starting next year, per The Information. The change could raise $AMZN’s costs for using Claude across products like Alexa for Shopping, Kiro, and Quick. Amazon is now reportedly evaluating OpenAI and its own Nova models to reduce reliance on Anthropic. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.8M contracts, $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $AMZN with 1.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.1M contracts, $MSFT with 931K contracts, $MU with 767K contracts, $SPCX with 617K contracts, $INTC with 598K contracts, $MSTR with 533K contracts, and $GOOGL with 489K contracts. 10. ByteDance is targeting early next year to finalize the design of its next-gen in-house CPU for AI infrastructure, per SCMP. Mass production and broader deployment are expected in H2 2027, as ByteDance looks to support AI workloads across Doubao, Seedance, and other internal platforms. Qualcomm $QCOM is reportedly helping with development and foundry capacity. 11. South Korea unveiled a massive $576B+ AI and chip investment push, with Samsung and SK Hynix expected to invest around $518B. Suppliers will build two new chip fab sites each in southwest Korea, while the broader plan includes a $52.7B chip packaging cluster and a goal to double DRAM output within five years. 12. U.S. online spending across all retailers hit $26.4B during Amazon $AMZN Prime Day, topping Adobe’s $26.3B estimate. Spending rose 9.3% YoY, while BNPL accounted for 6.6% of orders. However, Numerator said average household spending on Amazon fell 8.3% to $143. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting neutral 2525 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. A major end-of-Q2 rebalancing wave could hit global markets, with JPMorgan estimating institutional investors may sell up to $165B of equities and rotate the same amount into bonds by quarter-end — the largest rebalance in at least four years. The biggest expected sellers include Japan’s GPIF at roughly $60B, Norway’s Norges Bank at around $40B, U.S. defined benefit pensions at about $55B, and the Swiss National Bank at up to $25B. Balanced mutual funds may partially offset the pressure with an estimated $15B of equity buying, but overall, quarter-end flows could create significant selling pressure across global stocks. 2. SpaceX $SPCX reportedly signed a major compute deal with open-source AI startup Reflection AI, giving it access to Nvidia $NVDA GB300 chips at Colossus 2, per CNBC. Reflection is expected to pay SpaceX about $150M per month starting July 1, 2026, which could total roughly $6.3B if the agreement runs through 2029. The deal adds Reflection to SpaceX’s growing AI compute customer list, alongside Anthropic, Google, and Cursor. 3. Retail investors have poured roughly $150B into the largest equity ETFs over the past month, marking the second-biggest inflow in history. The move shows just how aggressive retail demand for equities has become, even as markets continue to digest major macro and positioning risks. 4. Palantir $PLTR has secured a foundational role in the U.S. Army’s NGC2 data layer. The Army established the NGC2 common data layer baseline, a major step in modernizing command-and-control systems. Palantir Foundry will serve as the cloud data layer, while Anduril Lattice will serve as the tactical data layer, giving the Army a scalable foundation for AI-enabled tools, interoperability, and faster battlefield decision-making. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.3M contracts, $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $AMZN with 1.1M contracts, $AAPL with 990K contracts, $GOOGL with 970K contracts, $MSFT with 917K contracts, $NFLX with 717K contracts, $INTC with 621K contracts, and $PLTR with 587K contracts. Tesla led options activity with more than 3.3M contracts traded, followed by Nvidia at 2.9M, while SpaceX and Amazon both saw volume above 1M contracts. 6. BofA now expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year, reversing its prior view of no changes. The firm sees 25 bps hikes in September, October, and December, taking the Fed funds range to 4.25%–4.5% by year-end. BofA now expects the first Fed rate cuts to come in 2028. 7. Qualcomm $QCOM is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire AI chip startup Modular in a deal that could value the company around $4B, per Bloomberg. No final agreement has been reached, but an announcement could come in the next few weeks. Modular last raised $250M at a $1.6B valuation in September 2025, meaning the reported deal would mark a major step-up in value. 8. Trump signed two quantum-focused executive orders aimed at accelerating U.S. leadership in the space. One order pushes for a U.S. quantum computer $INFQ $QBTS $IBM $RGTI $IONQ $QNT capable of major scientific calculations, along with quantum sensors and networks, within five years. The other directs federal agencies to transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2031, strengthening cybersecurity against future quantum threats. 9. Google $GOOGL is investing about $75M in A24 as part of a multi-year AI research partnership between Google DeepMind and the film studio. The deal marks Google’s first equity stake in a studio, with A24 and DeepMind working on AI tools for film production and distribution. The agreement does not give Google access to A24’s film and TV library, while A24 Labs is already developing an AI-generated storyboard tool. 10. Micron $MU signed a strategic agreement with Anthropic covering AI memory and storage architecture, multi-year supply, Claude enterprise adoption, and an investment in Anthropic’s Series H round. Micron will provide data center memory and storage products, including HBM, DRAM, and SSDs, while the two companies work together to optimize Anthropic’s AI infrastructure for performance, energy efficiency, and token economics. 11. Nvidia $NVDA launched Halos for Robotics, a full-stack safety system for robotics and physical AI. Agility will be the first to integrate parts of Halos into the safety architecture for Digit, its humanoid robot used in logistics, manufacturing, and warehouses. The system combines Nvidia IGX Thor, Holoscan Sensor Bridge, Halos OS, external-camera safety monitoring, and an ANAB-accredited AI Systems Inspection Lab, with 40+ companies participating in the lab program. 12. Chevron $CVX signed a 20-year power deal with Microsoft $MSFT to supply natural gas-fired electricity for a proposed West Texas data center. The project, called Kilby, is expected to deliver first power by 2028 and eventually ramp to 2.67 GW. Chevron will use Permian Basin gas to power GE Vernova turbines, with the project designed to generate its own electricity instead of drawing from the grid. Chevron is developing Kilby with Engine No. 1 and expects to make a final investment decision later this year. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  view on X →
• @Mr_Derivatives bearish 2300 eng

  $META in a bear market $MSFT in a bear market $TSLA in a bear market $AMZN almost in a bear market $NVDA almost in a bear market $GOOGL almost in a bear market $AAPL in a deep correction

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting neutral 2209 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nvidia $NVDA reported Q2’27 revenue of $96.2B, beating estimates of $92.2B and up 106% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.22 versus $2.10 expected, up 120% YoY. Data Center revenue reached $89.0B, above the $85.8B estimate and up 117% YoY, while adjusted gross margin was 75.0%, in line with expectations and up 250 bps YoY. Nvidia guided Q3 revenue to $108.0B +/- 2%, ahead of the $104.2B estimate, with adjusted gross margin expected at 74.0% +/- 50 bps. The company generated $64.0B of adjusted operating income, $54.0B of adjusted net income, and $21.3B of free cash flow, while returning roughly $26.0B to shareholders in Q2 with about $99.0B remaining on its authorization. Nvidia said its outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, while Vera Rubin is ramping into full production with racks running at partners. 2. US GDP came in at 1.5% QoQ, matching estimates. PCE rose 0.2% MoM versus 0.1% expected and 3.7% YoY versus 3.6% expected, while Core PCE was in line at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY. Consumer spending increased 0.2% MoM, above the 0.1% estimate, and personal income rose 0.4% MoM, ahead of the 0.2% estimate. Real personal consumption was flat at 0.0% MoM, matching expectations. 3. Meta $META agreed to an $18B youth safety commitment as part of its settlement with U.S. states, including $17B tied to broader settlement terms and $2.2B payable to California. Under the deal, Meta will spend the money over 10 years on youth online safety initiatives and implement new protections for users under 18, including limiting social media use to 2 hours per day and blocking access from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. Compliance will be monitored by an independent auditor for 5 years. Meta will accrue about $10B in legal expenses in Q3 2026, but says its July financial guidance remains unchanged. The company also said $5.3B of the settlement is tied to YouTube and TikTok implementing similar daily limits, night mode, and age assurance measures. 4. The Bank of Korea raised rates by 25 bps to 3.00%, marking its second straight hike and the first back-to-back rate increases since the COVID era. The central bank also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, signaling stronger confidence in the economy even as it tightens policy. 5. Nvidia $NVDA has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9B, according to The Information. Strategically, this would give Nvidia a much deeper foothold in the open-source AI ecosystem, where Hugging Face has become one of the main distribution layers for models, datasets, and developer workflows. The likely goal is not just owning another AI asset, but controlling more of the software layer around AI adoption: GPUs, networking, CUDA, inference infrastructure, and now a major platform where developers actually build, share, and deploy models. For Nvidia, this makes the ecosystem stickier and strengthens its position as AI shifts from training frontier models to deploying millions of inference workloads across enterprises. 6. U.S. new home sales fell 10.5% MoM in July to 607,000 units, the lowest level in 6 months and far worse than the 1.4% decline expected. Excluding January 2026, this was the weakest reading since November 2022. New home sales have now declined in 3 of the last 4 months and are down 6.3% YoY. The Midwest saw the sharpest drop, with sales plunging 42.7% MoM to 43,000, the lowest level since 2012. Sales in the South, the largest homebuying region at more than 60% of total sales, fell 13.0% to 383,000, the second-lowest level since January. The weakness comes as the 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.81%, its highest since August 2025, continuing to pressure homebuyer demand. 7. An IRGC spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the U.S. accepts Iran’s conditions. Those conditions reportedly include foreign warships staying at least 400 km away and no vessel transiting the Strait without Iran’s permission. The IRGC also said Iran and Oman have agreed to share revenue from shipping through the Strait, adding another layer of geopolitical and energy-market risk around one of the world’s most important chokepoints. 8. CrowdStrike $CRWD reported Q2’27 revenue of $1.47B, beating estimates of $1.44B and up 26% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.31 versus $0.29 expected, up 35% YoY, while free cash flow reached $377.4M, above the $353M estimate and up 33% YoY. Net new ARR hit a record $333M, up 51% YoY, bringing total ARR to $5.84B, up 25% YoY. CrowdStrike raised FY27 guidance to $5.99B–$6.01B in revenue, $1.25–$1.26 in adjusted EPS, and $6.60B–$6.61B in ARR. Management called Q2 the best quarter in company history, citing record Falcon Flex results, record net new ARR, stronger retention, and a Mythos-driven tailwind as AI adoption increasingly needs security at scale. $CRWD was up 10% after hours. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 2.7M contracts, $NVDA with 2.5M contracts, $META with 1.7M contracts, $AAPL with 1.4M contracts, $INTC with 742K contracts, $AMZN with 695K contracts, $SPCX with 603K contracts, $MU with 595K contracts, $MSFT with 579K contracts, and $AMD with 404K contracts. 10. $NVDA Nvidia's CFO today said revenue is expected to grow approximately 70% in FY28, even with a supply-constrained outlook. The company said Vera CPU is now in full production, shipments are already underway to lead partners, and CPU revenue is expected to more than double in FY28 against roughly $20B of total server CPU demand. Nvidia also said it began production shipments of Vera Rubin earlier this month, while neocloud partners are expected to exit the year with 8 GW of installed capacity, up from roughly 3 GW at the end of 2025. The CFO said cloud industry backlog now exceeds $2T, with capex from the top five hyperscalers expected to reach nearly $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027. Nvidia also addressed “circular financing,” saying it has invested nearly $50B in frontier AI labs and expects AI lab demand supported by its balance sheet to contribute roughly 25% of the business next year. 11. Google $GOOGL has reportedly hired Barret Zoph, co-founder and former CTO of Thinking Machines Lab, as VP of Research, according to WSJ. Zoph will work on Gemini, bringing expertise in reinforcement learning and post-training. Separately, SoftBank is reportedly in talks to acquire a majority stake in OpenAI-backed humanoid robot maker 1X at roughly a $6B valuation. 1X previously tried to raise $1B at a $10B valuation but raised less than half that target, while OpenAI also discussed acquiring the company last year before talks fell apart. 1X says it received more than 10,000 pre-orders for its $20,000 NEO humanoid in the first week, with deliveries planned for 2026, though none have been delivered yet. 12. AWS $AMZN and Nvidia $NVDA announced a major expansion of their strategic AI infrastructure partnership, building on 16 years of joint innovation. As part of the expanded collaboration, AWS will deploy 2 million additional Nvidia GPUs across its global infrastructure in 2027–2028. The companies said they are deepening their work across AI factories, CPUs, networking, open models, data processing, and robotics, giving customers more ways to build and deploy AI at scale. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  view on X →