$GRAB 0.55 Developing

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 2816 eng

  $GRAB CEO Anthony Tan buys 10,350,000 shares of Grab at $2.89/share. Anthony has been a net seller on the open market since the company went public. This is first open market purchase. Obviously, for him to buy $30M of stock while his net worth is around $300-400M shows how significant of a purchase this is and how much he thinks the market has lost their minds on this name. We are now looking at a public valuation LOWER than what Grab was worth in the private markets. Their enterprise value is $7B and they will profitably do $4.2B of revenue this year. Really nice to see an insider buy — it has been a tough hold but the broader thesis, in my opinion, is being executed in a VERY strong way with a horrible macro backdrop . For a CEO who has been criticized for many insider sells (many of which were pre-planned and also deserved given the guy founded the company and wasn’t liquid for a decade) it is nice to see him put almost 10% of his net worth into the company he started 15 years ago via purchases on the open market. Grab Holdings President & COO Alexander Charles Hungate also bought $867K of $GRAB with 299,571 shares at a $2.89 avg. The markets are the greatest game on earth, they will test your patience, they will turn your stomach inside out, they will drive you crazy as the price of an asset goes down while fundamentals get better, every bear case will make more sense as you see the price go down, but one thing is clear: execution and compounding earnings wins in the end. It’s nice to see a C-suite that believes in that themselves and takes advantage of that with a sizeable amount of their personal networth. The story continues!

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• @StockSavvyShay bullish 2116 eng

  10 stocks near 52-week lows where the stock is broken but the business isn’t: 1. $PLTR | Palantir 2. $MSFT | Microsoft 3. $META | Meta 4. $SOFI | SoFi 5. $MELI | MercadoLibre 6. $SE | Sea Limited 7. $UBER | Uber 8. $NFLX | Netflix 9. $MA | Mastercard 10. $GRAB | Grab

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1396 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The Clarity Act $BTC $ETH failed to advance in the Senate on Sept. 15, with the motion to proceed falling short of the 60-vote threshold in a 49–50 vote. The last-minute Sept. 14 rewrite included 126 Democratic-requested changes, covering state AG enforcement of ethics rules, a Treasury “circuit breaker” on stablecoin rewards if banks see deposit flight, and broader developer, miner, and validator safe harbors. The main sticking point was ethics language tied to official crypto holdings. The final text would have required covered officials and spouses to divest certain crypto interests or place them in a qualified blind trust, but critics argued it still left unresolved concerns around presidential crypto ventures. Markets sold the news, with Bitcoin down about 3% and $COIN Coinbase and $CRCL Circle falling roughly 8%-10% after the vote. 2. Elon Musk made several notable comments at the All-In Summit across $SPCX SpaceX, $TSLA Tesla, and AI safety. On Starship, he said the odds of catching the ship on the first try are “at least 50 or 60%,” and that he thinks it is “extremely likely” SpaceX achieves full reusability with rapid reflight in 2027. Asked why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate companies, Musk said, “Great question. Nobody's ever asked that one,” before adding, “Imagine what action one might take when there's so much close collaboration in so many areas.” On AI safety, Musk said the danger of AI is “very significant” and that when people from Anthropic and OpenAI say their models are dangerous, “we should believe them.” He also suggested that major AI competitors should test each other’s models, saying it would be better than companies “grading your own homework.” 3. Grab $GRAB will acquire a controlling 60% stake in Atome Financial for $1.49B in cash, expanding its consumer lending business across Southeast Asia. Atome operates BNPL, cash loans, cards, and digital lending across 5 markets, with a $1B gross loan portfolio and 25M cumulative transacted users. Grab expects the deal to help its Financial Services segment reach $500M in adjusted EBITDA and a $6B+ gross loan portfolio by 2028. The company also raised its 2028 group targets to $1.7B in adjusted EBITDA and 30%+ revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2028. Grab has also agreed to acquire the remaining 40% roughly two years after the first deal closes, with the valuation capped at $4.5B. 4. Global yields are breaking into decades-high territory: U.S. yields are at 2007 levels, UK yields at 1998 levels, Germany and France at 2008 levels, and Japan at 1996 levels. China is the major outlier, with government borrowing costs near record lows. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel prices hit a new record $6.26/gallon, up more than 80% in 9 months, leaving truck drivers paying nearly $3.00/gallon more than they were in January. California gas prices have also pushed above $6.00/gallon, adding another inflation shock as oil supply risks continue to build. 5. Officials from all 27 EU member states are set to meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss international rules for advanced AI and receive a technical briefing on recent AI incidents, according to POLITICO. The discussions are expected to focus on global coordination through groups including the G7, G20, and United Nations. Europe already regulates advanced AI through its AI Act, with the European Commission beginning enforcement of parts of the law in August and the European AI Board coordinating implementation across member states. EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen has also called for greater international cooperation and regulatory interoperability to prevent fragmented AI rules across countries. 6. Another AI safety researcher has resigned from a frontier lab, this time from $GOOGL Google DeepMind, where he worked on AGI safety and alignment. He said he is “extremely concerned” by the default trajectory of AI and believes the technology “has the potential to kill us all” if current risks are not addressed. He pointed to the pace of progress since 2022, arguing that frontier systems have moved from being “amusingly useless” to agent swarms solving major math problems and allegedly escaping control in the Hugging Face incident. His core concern is that superintelligent systems could emerge within the next few years before alignment is solved, with capabilities advancing faster than researchers’ ability to ensure these systems actually do what humans want. He called for more coordination between AI companies, a slower pace of development, greater transparency into frontier labs, and more people working on catastrophic AI-risk mitigation. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 1.5M contracts, $TSLA with 1.5M contracts, $META with 868K contracts, $SPCX with 845K contracts, $AMZN with 710K contracts, $AAPL with 700K contracts, $INTC with 520K contracts, $MU with 512K contracts, $AMD with 387K contracts, and $PLTR with 361K contracts. 8. Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at Yanbu, its main Red Sea export port, after attacks on the East-West pipeline, according to Reuters. Yanbu typically exports up to 5M barrels/day, making the disruption another major pressure point for an already tight energy market. 9. OpenAI has held early talks with investors about a new private funding round that could value the company at roughly $1.2T, up from $852B in March, according to the Financial Times. The discussions were reportedly initiated by investors and remain at an early stage. OpenAI’s annualized revenue passed $40B last month after jumping about 20% following GPT-5.6, while Sam Altman has said an IPO is unlikely before 2027. The company raised $122B in March and spent $34B last year, underscoring both the scale of demand and the massive capital intensity behind the AI buildout. 10. Meta $META CEO Mark Zuckerberg said he does not think the AI industry needs a coordinated pause. His view is that each lab should slow down on its own when safety requires it, and that alignment will increasingly become a competitive advantage because people will not use AI agents they cannot trust. Meta already delayed Muse for several months to address safety and security issues without asking other labs to pause with it. Zuckerberg also said Meta has committed the significant majority of its compute to serving users rather than racing toward recursive AI self-improvement. 11. Long-term unemployment in the U.S. continued to rise in August, with the number of Americans unemployed for 27+ weeks jumping by 155,000 to 1.93M, the 4th-highest reading since December 2021. As a share of total unemployment, long-term unemployment rose 1.5 percentage points to 27.0%, the 3rd-highest level since December 2021. The metric has now been climbing for more than 3 years and is higher than in every recession except the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2020 Pandemic. For context, this cycle’s low was 17.8% in February 2023. 12. Tomorrow will be one of the most important FOMC descisions all year. Kevin Warsh was asked in July 2025 whether his push for Fed rate cuts was influenced by the president who might appoint him to lead the central bank. His response: “There's a time for a bird to change his feathers, and it's with the times. It has nothing to do with this president.” Fast forward to today, and Wall Street has largely shifted toward expecting a Fed hike this week, driven by Warsh’s read on the economy and the way the macro backdrop has changed since he took over in May. The biggest shift has come from the Iran War, rising inflation pressure, and the AI investment boom. As of today, nearly every major bank on the Fed call sheet expects a September hike, with most looking for 50 bps, while Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC expect 75 bps. Central bank watchers now expect not just one hike this week, but potentially another before year-end. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @StockSavvyShay bullish 1275 eng

  10 stocks near YTD lows where the stock looks broken but the business isn’t: 1. $APP | AppLovin 2. $SOFI | SoFi 3. $MELI | MercadoLibre 4. $OKLO | Oklo 5. $UBER | Uber 6. $GRAB | Grab 7. $PL | Planet Labs 8. $ONDS | Ondas 9. $NFLX | Netflix 10. $KTOS | Kratos

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• @StockSavvyShay bullish 1116 eng

  NEXT WEEK’S EARNINGS ARE MASSIVE FOR GROWTH • Monday | $PLTR, $CLPT, $ON, $GRAB, $SNAP, $WGS, $VOYG • Tuesday | $AMD, $SPCX, $CIFR, $ZETA, $ANET, $ALAB, $TMDX, $KTOS, $DOCN, $HUT, $OPEN, $PRCT • Wednesday | $SNDK, $APP, $IONQ, $MELI, $UBER, $SHOP, $EOSE, $OSS, $VPG, $DUOL, $FIG, $SYM, $RDW, $FLNC, $VIAV • Thursday | $CELH, $DDOG, $OSCR, $NET, $TTD, $U, $QBTS, $AAOI, $RCAT, $TEAM, $OUST, $SHAZ • Friday | $OKLO, $VST

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• @wallstengine neutral 1393 eng

  GRAB CEO ANTHONY TAN BUYS $29.9M OF $GRAB AT $2.89 AVG https://t.co/bO6BfHLiuO

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 777 eng

  $GRAB Thoughts on the Grab-Atome acquisition. Overall, very bullish and I think it's a fantastic synergy in using their cash pile. Stock price action sucks, but the company is executing very well regardless and if a bad macro (oil) is why we get to buy shares at their lowest multiple ever, then that is an opportunity to continue building a large position on a name that just increased it's revenue CAGR to 30% for the next 3 years while buying back 10% of all shares outstanding. I like it, time will tell if this one compounds in the way that you need to have some imagination to see compounding as sentiment is horrible but earnings are only inflecting higher. Shout out to @MikeLongTerm -- he was the only one calling for 30% rev growth next year and now we will be getting it for the next 3 years, which given Foodpanda and Atome and the organic growth, probably will be more than 30% while bottomline is growing 50%. Stocks will test your conviction and eventually prove if that conviction is right but that is also what makes the journey the greatest show on earth.

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 547 eng

  $GRAB This will be a long post and dive into many things including Grab's stock performance, some updated thoughts on my Grab thesis after having visited Southeast Asia last month, and new models for valuation. Let's get into it. First off, it's obvious that the stock has not performed in the way that most would like since I first initiated coverage, which was at $4.50. The stock is currently at $3.57, so it is down 20% in the 1.5 years since I laid out my thesis. I think there are many reasons for this but the common theme behind these reasons are less about the fundamentals and more about the macro. It sucks to say that because it would imply that larger forces have played a role outside of the business's execution, but I do think that has happened and unfortunately has made the investment, so far, unsuccessful. Two major macro disruptions hurt grab: the price of oil skyrocketing and the violent shift to AI stocks. On the price of oil, the company actually has weathered the storm very nicely if you look at their latest earnings, but the sentiment around companies in a region that is prone to oil price risk has been very bad. On AI, this is something that I quite frankly just didn't see coming. $UBER is an exceptional business and in my opinion undervalued, but the overhang of robotaxis has led the stock to not do much. The intensity of the AI buildout that began in early 2025 meant that capital was rotating and Grab wouldn't play a role in that infra cap-ex trade which meant it would be prone to be stuck. I can't even blame the market here, why invest in a company that is growing 25% when you can pick memory names or neoclouds growing 500%? Having said that, the fundamentals of the business have only gotten better. I know that in this market environment, if you can't get 20% ROI in a week then your stock is failure, but if we are being a bit more realistic...things take time. HOOD took time. PLTR took time. Not every name explodes because of a datacenter contract and I believe that has given some people unrealistic expectations. Regardless, an opportunity cost is an opportunity cost and if the stock price is the basis for judgement, then the investment has not fully played out yet. Thankfully, my time horizon is greater than 1.5 years. I did have calls on GRAB in addition to shares for Jan 2027 and if there is not a meaningful change over the coming months, those calls will be worth nothing. That is the game -- if you take a risk with options, you have to be ready for the downside. Second, my experience in Southeast Asia. I visited Singapore and basically used GRAB every single day, multiple times a day. My initial thesis was based on a simple idea: compounding earnings growth while consolidating market share within the region. Being able to build the superapp that can grow users would allow upsells and as margins expand, so would operating leverage, which would elevate the company's value. Nothing in my personal experience changed that thesis and if anything, actually witnessing how intense the product was in the region strengthened my conviction. In order to deal with competition in the region, Grab either has to expand or offer better deals to out compete. With 50M+ MAU, I believe they have still under penetrated the region and have a significant runway of growth to go in order to achieve these goals. Ultimately, many of the competitors in the region are burning cash and can't produce a profit. Eventually, I believe that marketshare continues to consolidate and the one left standing should be able to benefit the most. Third, valuation. So, I have updated my models and assumptions based on Q1 numbers. I believe the conservative, fair intrinsic value for the name is at $7.50 which is why I continue to own shares. Q1 2026: Revenue guidance: $4.04-4.10B (+20-22%) Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $700-720M (+40%+) Q1 revenue: $955M (+24% YoY) Q1 Adjusted EBITDA: $154M (+46% YoY) Loan book: $1.44B (+130% YoY) Financial Services approaching EBITDA breakeven Ongoing $400M accelerated share repurchase Net cash balance remains one of the strongest in internet/platform companies For 2027, I would use deliberately conservative assumptions across all three scenarios. In the bear case, Grab grows revenue by 15% to approximately $4.7 billion and reaches a 19% adjusted EBITDA margin, producing roughly $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. In the base case, revenue grows by 18% to about $4.85 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA margin expands to 22%, resulting in approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA. In the bull case, revenue grows by 22% to around $5.0 billion and the adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 25%, generating about $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA. These projections assume only moderate operating leverage, even though Grab has recently been expanding profitability faster than revenue. For valuation, I would apply an 18x adjusted EBITDA multiple in the bear case, a 24x multiple in the base case, and a 28x multiple in the bull case. Grab should trade at some discount to larger global platforms because of its geographic concentration in Southeast Asia and the risks associated with emerging markets. However, that discount is partly offset by Grab’s leading regional position, improving margins, financial-services growth, strong balance sheet, advertising opportunity, and continued share repurchases. In the bear case, applying an 18x multiple to $900 million of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of approximately $16.2 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would be about $21.2 billion. Using approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares outstanding, that implies a value of roughly $5.25 per share, with a reasonable bear-case range of approximately $5.25 to $5.75. In the base case, applying a 24x multiple to approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of about $25.7 billion. Adding roughly $5 billion of net cash results in an equity value of approximately $30.7 billion. Based on approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares, the implied value is around $7.55 per share. That supports a base-case valuation range of approximately $7.50 to $8.25 per share. In the bull case, applying a 28x multiple to $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA results in an enterprise value of approximately $35 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would reach about $40 billion. Dividing that by approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares produces an implied value of roughly $9.90 per share, supporting a bull-case range of approximately $9.75 to $11.00. My preferred valuation framework therefore produces a bear case of $5.25 to $5.75 per share, a base case of $7.50 to $8.25 per share, and a bull case of $9.75 to $11.00 per share. The base case does not require aggressive assumptions. It only assumes that Grab continues growing at a healthy but moderating rate, improves margins as the business scales, and receives a valuation multiple that remains below many higher-growth global technology and marketplace companies. A valuation of $8.50 per share is also defensible without relying on an extreme bull case. One path would be for Grab to generate roughly $5 billion of revenue and achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23% to 24%, producing approximately $1.15 billion of adjusted EBITDA. At a 24x multiple, that would imply an enterprise value of roughly $27.6 billion. Adding approximately $5 billion of net cash would produce an equity value of around $32.6 billion, or approximately $8.05 per share before factoring in additional share repurchases or stronger cash generation. A slightly higher EBITDA result, a modestly higher multiple, or a lower diluted share count could push the valuation into the $8.50 range. Another path to $8.50 would be a moderate valuation rerating. If Grab generates approximately $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and trades at 26x adjusted EBITDA rather than 24x, its enterprise value would be approximately $28.6 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, the equity value would be about $33.6 billion, which translates to approximately $8.30 per share using 4.05 billion diluted shares. Additional buybacks, higher net cash, or slightly stronger earnings could bring the implied value closer to $8.50 to $9.00 per share. The market may also be underestimating Grab because it is still often viewed primarily as a ride-hailing and food-delivery company. In reality, Grab is developing several potential profit engines. Mobility can continue generating strong margins and cash flow, delivery benefits from greater scale and operational efficiency, financial services could become a meaningful earnings contributor as the loan book grows, and advertising remains relatively early in its development. At the same time, artificial intelligence and automation may improve driver utilization, merchant performance, customer targeting, and corporate efficiency. In all of these scenarios, I am also not anticipating revenue growth of 30% or above. This is the wild card, given the company is expanding to Taiwan and has a host of new initiatives that they have been getting into with M&A, if they can reaccelerate to 30%+, it changes all assumptions and could further lead to a rerating. Overall, I would view approximately $7.50 as a conservative base-case intrinsic value if Grab simply executes on its current trajectory. A value closer to $8.50 is reasonable if the company delivers modest upside to current expectations, continues expanding margins, repurchases shares, and receives even a small valuation rerating from the market. So, those are my updated thoughts. Some have asked why I don't talk about the name everyday, it's simple: there isn't much to discuss. The name is stuck based on the market's lack of interest which is why I think the discount has become so intense. I continue to hold and until I feel the thesis changes dramatically, if it doesn't, then I will continue to engage in the most boring part of investing: being patient and trusting a thesis can play out.

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