$HTZ 0.59 Developing

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1653 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. CoreWeave $CRWV reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.6B, slightly ahead of estimates of $2.56B, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B versus $1.43B expected and adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%. Revenue backlog reached roughly $104B, up 46% YoY, while active power more than tripled YoY to 1.5GW and contracted power increased to 4.2GW. CoreWeave raised FY26 guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B in revenue and $960M–$1.15B in adjusted operating income, while lifting its active power target to more than 1.85GW. The company now expects year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $18.5B–$19.5B, managed inference ARR above $250M exiting 2026, and long-term active power of 8GW+ by 2030. Management said customer demand is accelerating as enterprise adoption broadens and its platform deepens. 2. Gemini has become $GOOGL Google’s fastest-growing product ever, crossing 1B monthly users and becoming the company’s 14th product to reach the billion-user milestone. The scale-up underscores how quickly Google is pushing Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and its broader AI ecosystem. 3. BofA downgraded AppLovin $APP to Neutral with a $400 price target, saying risks to the company’s long-term 30% YoY revenue growth trajectory have increased. Analyst Omar Dessouky said post-Q2 growth appears to be driven more by engineer-directed improvements to Gaming models, while it is less clear whether the prior 3%–5% QoQ self-learning growth assumption still applies. BofA also noted that with AppLovin’s high relative market share, estimated at roughly 2x its next-largest competitor, long-term growth from self-learning alone may be harder to sustain than the market previously assumed. 4. President Trump is reportedly weighing a capital gains tax cut ahead of the midterms, including the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation before taxes are calculated. Under that approach, investors would only owe taxes on the inflation-adjusted “real” gain, not the full nominal gain. For example, if someone bought a business or stock position for $2M and sold it years later for $5M, the nominal gain would be $3M. But if cumulative inflation over that period was 25%, the inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $2.5M, leaving only $2.5M of taxable real gain instead of $3M. Trump has also floated capital gains exemptions for home sales worth $2M or less. There has not been a major U.S. capital gains tax cut since 2003. 5. Senator Bernie Sanders has reportedly called on major AI companies to pause development, sending letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, according to NYT. The push adds to the growing political scrutiny around frontier AI development, safety, and whether the largest labs should slow deployment as model capabilities continue advancing. 6. Apple $AAPL is reportedly still planning a glass-centric iPhone redesign for the device’s 20th anniversary in 2027, contrary to a Jefferies report that said it had been canceled, according to Bloomberg. The new Pro models are expected to feature glass that curves into the sides, with a metal band running through the middle. 7. U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06M annualized pace, slightly above estimates. Median existing home prices rose 2% YoY to $434,100, while inventory increased to 1.54M homes. The data points to a housing market that is still soft on transaction volume, but with prices remaining resilient as supply continues to build. 8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.2M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $SPCX with 861K contracts, $AAPL with 823K contracts, $MU with 664K contracts, $AMZN with 568K contracts, $PLTR with 559K contracts, $INTC with 555K contracts, $GOOGL with 546K contracts, and $HTZ with 518K contracts. 9. Supermicro $SMCI reported Q4’26 revenue of $11.1B, below estimates of $11.55B, but adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $0.96 expected, up 315% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 17.5%, up 800 bps YoY, while net income reached $1.2B, adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B, and operating income came in at $1.5B. For Q1, Supermicro guided revenue to $14.5B–$15.5B, well above estimates of $11.68B, with adjusted EPS of $1.01–$1.10. For FY27, the company guided revenue to $65B–$72B, far ahead of the $52.5B estimate. Management said Supermicro generated more than $60B in new orders and entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog, while improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of its optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions architecture. 10. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rocket Lab $RKLB and raised its price target to $132, saying the company delivered a “beat and raise” quarter with Q2 results ahead of expectations across revenue, margins, and EBITDA. Rocket Lab signed 26 new Electron/HASTE missions, expanded total launch backlog to more than 90 missions, and grew overall backlog to roughly $2.4B, with another $800M of bookings added after quarter-end. Stifel also highlighted accelerating Space Systems revenue as SDA programs ramp, multiple defense awards, and continued progress on Neutron, which remains on schedule for pad delivery in Q4’26. The firm said Rocket Lab’s Iridium acquisition, GHOST launch system, defense exposure, backlog visibility, and limited competition create a compelling long-term risk/reward despite near-term cash burn. 11. Schwab clients were net buyers of ETFs and equities in July by a 2:1 ratio. The top stocks bought were $SPCX, $MU, $INTC, $ORCL, and $TSLA, while the top stocks sold were $AAPL, $AVGO, $ADBE, $PYPL, and $AMD. The data shows retail leaning back into high-beta AI, memory, and space-linked names while trimming exposure to some of the market’s more mature tech leaders. 12. The SEC is reportedly preparing to roll out two major crypto initiatives $BTC $ETH as the Clarity Act stalls in Congress, according to Bloomberg. The agency will hold an open meeting Friday to create a tailored offering regime for certain crypto-related investment contracts. The SEC is also expected to unveil an “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized securities, potentially paving the way for 24/7 trading of stock tokens on blockchains. Details could be released as soon as Friday, though the proposal is still being finalized and could change. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1341 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nebius $NBIS reported Q2’26 revenue of $582.3M, beating estimates of $573M and up 454% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $236.2M versus $175M expected, compared to -$21M last year. AI Cloud revenue surged 514% YoY to $575M, operating cash flow reached $2.25B, and cash stood at $8.04B. Nebius reaffirmed FY26 guidance, now expects customer prepayments of more than $9B in 2026, and raised contracted capacity to 5 GW from prior guidance of more than 4 GW. Management said it could sell its entire 2027 capacity today, but is deliberately holding some back for higher-value immediate customer demand. $NBIS finished up 34% on the day. 2. July CPI came in cooler, with headline inflation rising just 0.1% MoM after falling 0.4% in June. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June. Shelter increased 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, while food also rose 0.1% and food away from home climbed 0.3%. Energy prices fell 1.5% on the month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% after being flat in June, while annual core inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%. Energy remains the biggest annual pressure point, up 14.7% YoY, while food is up 3.0% over the last year. 3. Bank of America $BAC plans to deploy $250B through mid-2027 across AI data centers, semiconductors, hardware, power generation, energy storage, and critical minerals, according to WSJ. The initiative will span lending, investing, capital markets, banking, and advisory work. BofA said equity investments are not the focus, but has not ruled them out for the right projects. The push also extends beyond AI infrastructure into transportation, natural gas, and water infrastructure. 4. Institutional investors are reducing U.S. tech exposure. Hedge funds, asset managers, and other large investors sold $21.6B of Nasdaq futures in the week ending August 4, the largest weekly sale on record, according to Goldman Sachs. Short sales drove the move, accounting for 72% of total selling. Hedge funds sold $11.9B, while asset managers sold $7.4B. As a result, combined institutional positioning in Nasdaq futures fell to -$5B, turning negative for the first time since May 2025 after reaching as high as +$54B in October 2025. 5. South Korea is tightening rules on single-stock leveraged ETFs again, requiring new investors to complete at least 5 days of mock trading totaling 5+ hours before buying these products. The rule takes effect August 19 and applies to investments both locally and abroad. The move follows a sharp retail wipeout in leveraged ETF products, after regulators already raised the minimum cash deposit requirement to 30M won or roughly $21,000, and extended mandatory online training for new investors to 3 hours. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 2.2M contracts, $SPCX with 1.7M contracts, $MU with 1.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $OWL with 908K contracts, $INTC with 903K contracts, $META with 796K contracts, $HTZ with 725K contracts, and $SMCI with 720K contracts. 7. OpenAI’s run-rate revenue from business customers grew 32% MoM in July, outpacing 20% growth in overall run-rate revenue, according to DealBook. The gap highlights how quickly enterprise demand is becoming a larger driver of OpenAI’s growth as companies scale paid usage across AI tools, APIs, and workflow integrations. 8. Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is reportedly preparing a potential take-private bid for Wendy’s $WEN, according to FT. Trian is Wendy’s largest shareholder with a 16% stake and is assembling a consortium that could include BlueFive Capital and major franchisee Flynn Group. A formal offer could come in the coming weeks, though talks could still change or fall apart. 9. Google $GOOGL unveiled the Pixel 11 lineup, including the Pixel 11, Pixel 11 Pro, Pixel 11 Pro XL, and Pixel 11 Pro Fold, while raising prices by $100 versus the prior generation due to a “severe” memory crunch. The lineup now starts at $899, while the foldable starts at $1,899. Google also introduced the Pixel Watch 5 at $399, adding insulin-resistance tracking, which it says is a first for the category. 10. Bill Ackman is back in Netflix $NFLX. He first bought the stock in 2022 around $350/share, investing roughly $1.1B, before selling a few months later for a 40% loss and taking a roughly $400M hit. He redeployed the capital into Google, which worked, but Netflix went on to rise about 650% from its lows. Now, with the stock down roughly 50%, Ackman is back in. His thesis is that Netflix can compound revenue at a double-digit rate, grow content costs more slowly than revenue, continue expanding margins, and use its buyback program to help drive earnings growth near 20% annually. Ackman says the current valuation is a substantial discount for a business with Netflix’s growth profile and dominant market position. He also added $V, $MA, $ICE, $ALC, and $SPGI to his portfolio. 11. The financial industry cut 14,000 jobs in July, bringing payrolls down to 9.09M, the lowest level since July 2022. This marks the sector’s 5th straight monthly decline, with total job losses of 59,000 over that stretch. Since May 2025, financial industry payrolls are down 121,000, the largest drawdown since the 2020 pandemic. Excluding the pandemic, this is the biggest contraction in financial-sector employment since the 2008 Financial Crisis, as firms accelerate AI adoption to boost productivity and reduce labor costs. 12. The S&P 500 has historically kept climbing after major breakouts to new all-time highs. Over the last 30 years, the index has risen in 13 of 17 similar instances, gaining an average of roughly 6.3% over the next 6 months. The only exceptions were 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019, with 2000 and 2007 preceding major bear markets. Most recently, after a similar breakout in 2025, the S&P 500 gained 12.3% over the following six months. The index has now posted 26 all-time highs in 2026, following 39 record closes in 2025 and 57 in 2024. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @DeFiTracer bullish 226 eng

  🚨 BREAKING: BILLIONAIRE BILL ACKMAN JUST SHARED HIS STOCK POSITIONS: $MSFT: $2.457 BILLION $AMZN: $2.438 BILLION $HTZ: $70 MILLION THIS MAN PREDICTED COVID-19 AND THE 2008 CRASH AND NOW CONTROLS $30 BILLION HE DEFINITELY KNOWS SOMETHING!! https://t.co/6OJFaP2LBq

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