$IBM 0.25 Weak

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 2525 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. A major end-of-Q2 rebalancing wave could hit global markets, with JPMorgan estimating institutional investors may sell up to $165B of equities and rotate the same amount into bonds by quarter-end — the largest rebalance in at least four years. The biggest expected sellers include Japan’s GPIF at roughly $60B, Norway’s Norges Bank at around $40B, U.S. defined benefit pensions at about $55B, and the Swiss National Bank at up to $25B. Balanced mutual funds may partially offset the pressure with an estimated $15B of equity buying, but overall, quarter-end flows could create significant selling pressure across global stocks. 2. SpaceX $SPCX reportedly signed a major compute deal with open-source AI startup Reflection AI, giving it access to Nvidia $NVDA GB300 chips at Colossus 2, per CNBC. Reflection is expected to pay SpaceX about $150M per month starting July 1, 2026, which could total roughly $6.3B if the agreement runs through 2029. The deal adds Reflection to SpaceX’s growing AI compute customer list, alongside Anthropic, Google, and Cursor. 3. Retail investors have poured roughly $150B into the largest equity ETFs over the past month, marking the second-biggest inflow in history. The move shows just how aggressive retail demand for equities has become, even as markets continue to digest major macro and positioning risks. 4. Palantir $PLTR has secured a foundational role in the U.S. Army’s NGC2 data layer. The Army established the NGC2 common data layer baseline, a major step in modernizing command-and-control systems. Palantir Foundry will serve as the cloud data layer, while Anduril Lattice will serve as the tactical data layer, giving the Army a scalable foundation for AI-enabled tools, interoperability, and faster battlefield decision-making. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.3M contracts, $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $AMZN with 1.1M contracts, $AAPL with 990K contracts, $GOOGL with 970K contracts, $MSFT with 917K contracts, $NFLX with 717K contracts, $INTC with 621K contracts, and $PLTR with 587K contracts. Tesla led options activity with more than 3.3M contracts traded, followed by Nvidia at 2.9M, while SpaceX and Amazon both saw volume above 1M contracts. 6. BofA now expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year, reversing its prior view of no changes. The firm sees 25 bps hikes in September, October, and December, taking the Fed funds range to 4.25%–4.5% by year-end. BofA now expects the first Fed rate cuts to come in 2028. 7. Qualcomm $QCOM is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire AI chip startup Modular in a deal that could value the company around $4B, per Bloomberg. No final agreement has been reached, but an announcement could come in the next few weeks. Modular last raised $250M at a $1.6B valuation in September 2025, meaning the reported deal would mark a major step-up in value. 8. Trump signed two quantum-focused executive orders aimed at accelerating U.S. leadership in the space. One order pushes for a U.S. quantum computer $INFQ $QBTS $IBM $RGTI $IONQ $QNT capable of major scientific calculations, along with quantum sensors and networks, within five years. The other directs federal agencies to transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2031, strengthening cybersecurity against future quantum threats. 9. Google $GOOGL is investing about $75M in A24 as part of a multi-year AI research partnership between Google DeepMind and the film studio. The deal marks Google’s first equity stake in a studio, with A24 and DeepMind working on AI tools for film production and distribution. The agreement does not give Google access to A24’s film and TV library, while A24 Labs is already developing an AI-generated storyboard tool. 10. Micron $MU signed a strategic agreement with Anthropic covering AI memory and storage architecture, multi-year supply, Claude enterprise adoption, and an investment in Anthropic’s Series H round. Micron will provide data center memory and storage products, including HBM, DRAM, and SSDs, while the two companies work together to optimize Anthropic’s AI infrastructure for performance, energy efficiency, and token economics. 11. Nvidia $NVDA launched Halos for Robotics, a full-stack safety system for robotics and physical AI. Agility will be the first to integrate parts of Halos into the safety architecture for Digit, its humanoid robot used in logistics, manufacturing, and warehouses. The system combines Nvidia IGX Thor, Holoscan Sensor Bridge, Halos OS, external-camera safety monitoring, and an ANAB-accredited AI Systems Inspection Lab, with 40+ companies participating in the lab program. 12. Chevron $CVX signed a 20-year power deal with Microsoft $MSFT to supply natural gas-fired electricity for a proposed West Texas data center. The project, called Kilby, is expected to deliver first power by 2028 and eventually ramp to 2.67 GW. Chevron will use Permian Basin gas to power GE Vernova turbines, with the project designed to generate its own electricity instead of drawing from the grid. Chevron is developing Kilby with Engine No. 1 and expects to make a final investment decision later this year. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting bearish 1663 eng

  $IBM Woah. IBM put out preliminary Q2 results...and they are not good. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up 1% YoY. Consulting revenue was flat and infrastructure revenue was down 7% YoY. All the software names are down in sympathy to IBM basically saying that software spend went to semiconductor spend this quarter. CEO Arvind Krishna: “In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.” He also said clients were distracted by “rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns,” and that IBM “did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.” Company just lose $65B in market cap. I don't think all the software names should be down because of IBM's specific news but today could be a day where the fear of this happening to other names affects all of them. $IBM -24%

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1564 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. June U.S. inflation came in much cooler than expected. Headline CPI was 3.5% YoY vs 3.8% expected, while CPI fell 0.4% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core CPI was 2.6% YoY vs 2.9% expected, with Core CPI flat at 0.0% MoM vs 0.2% expected. This marks the first negative monthly inflation reading since 2020. 2. President Trump said he has decided to replace the proposed 20% United States Reimbursement Fee on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals from Gulf States into the U.S. He said those investments will be “massive” while also being “extraordinarily good” for the Gulf States and their future. 3. IBM $IBM went down 24% after preliminary Q2 results came in well below expectations. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up just 1% YoY, with consulting revenue flat and infrastructure revenue down 7% YoY. CEO Arvind Krishna said that in the last few weeks of June, clients shifted quarterly capex toward servers, storage, and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, while cybersecurity concerns also distracted customers. IBM said it did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization. The stock has lost roughly $65B in market cap. 4. Palantir $PLTR moved from $122 in the premarket to $135 as the market opened. The stock opened down on the $IBM news around software spend shifting toward capex spend and recovered into the open, closing up 3%. $MSFT Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella quoted Alex Karp yesterday in his piece about why the market needs to focus on true enterprise transformation, not just tokens, while Chamath said on CNBC today that Karp “deserves a medal” for being on the right side of history in calling out foundation model companies that take IP without delivering customer value. 5. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today said in his congressional testimony that he is “doubling down” on the 2% inflation target and believes this Fed will deliver 2% inflation. He added that a broader price stability objective is still in the back of his mind and said the Fed will see if further reforms are needed. Warsh also said he is prepared to do everything he can to ensure the independent conduct of monetary policy. 6. New York is set to enact the first statewide data center moratorium in the U.S., per NYT. Gov. Kathy Hochul will pause approvals for new hyperscale data centers using 50MW+ of power for one year while the state studies energy, water, and environmental impacts. The order takes effect immediately, but does not impact projects that already have required permits. Hospitals, universities, and back-office financial services are not expected to be affected. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.1M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $AAPL with 707K contracts, $PLTR with 646K contracts, $INTC with 562K contracts, $MU with 551K contracts, $IBM with 494K contracts, $AMZN with 492K contracts, $MSFT with 478K contracts, and $WULF with 420K contracts. 8. Nebius $NBIS agreed to sell $1B+ of AI compute to Reflection AI through 2029, giving the company access to Nvidia GB300 chips. Reflection AI, founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, also signed a multibillion-dollar compute deal with SpaceX last month and has reportedly discussed raising $2.5B at a $25B valuation. Nebius already has compute agreements with Microsoft and Meta. 9. OpenAI is developing a screen-free, battery-powered smart speaker designed as a humanlike AI companion and a new home AI computer. The first consumer product is reportedly focused on voice interaction and ambient presence, giving users an AI assistant they can build a connection with. The device includes a camera and other sensors to understand surroundings and context, while tapping into ChatGPT for richer assistance than conventional smart speakers. It can control smart-home appliances, play media, answer questions, respond to messages, help with chores, assist with cooking, and play music as it moves around the home. 10. Aehr $AEHR reported a strong Q4 beat and guided well above the Street. Q4 EPS came in at $0.11 vs -$0.01 expected, while revenue was $18.8M vs $18.69M expected. The company also received $8M+ in new silicon carbide wafer-level burn-in orders as EV programs ramp, including a follow-on WaferPak order from its lead SiC production customer and a direct order from one of the world’s top two automakers to qualify SiC suppliers for next-gen EVs. Aehr said its lead customer indicated additional capacity needs this fiscal year. Most importantly, $AEHR guided FY27 revenue to $130M–$150M, far above the Street at $85M. 11. Big banks reported a very strong Q2, with Goldman Sachs $GS, Bank of America $BAC, JPMorgan $JPM, and Wells Fargo $WFC all beating expectations. Goldman was the standout, with revenue of $20.34B vs $16.35B expected and EPS of $20.98 vs $14.45, driven by a massive 53% YoY jump in Global Banking & Markets and a 72% YoY surge in Equities S&T. Bank of America beat on revenue and EPS, with trading revenue ex-DVA up 33% YoY. JPMorgan posted revenue of $58.02B vs $51.39B expected and EPS of $7.70 vs $5.72, though NII was roughly in line. Wells Fargo also beat, with revenue up 9% YoY, EPS up 25% YoY, and net loan charge-offs coming in better than expected. Overall, the quarter showed stronger trading, resilient credit, and better-than-expected earnings power across the big banks. 12. South Korea is seeing an unprecedented foreign investor pullback. Overseas investors have dumped $110B of Korean equities so far this year, already far beyond the prior 7-year full-year high of $22B in 2021. The selling intensified in June, when foreigners unloaded $31B, the biggest monthly outflow ever recorded. At the same time, local buyers have stepped in aggressively, with domestic retail investors purchasing $60B and institutions adding $15B since May began. The pressure is now spilling into leveraged retail accounts: as of July 13, 1.2M Korean margin accounts had triggered margin calls, with roughly 320K–360K accounts fully liquidated by brokers. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @StockSavvyShay bullish 1545 eng

  President Trump signed two major executive orders on quantum technologies saying they will strengthen America’s position as the “world leader” in the emerging field. $IONQ, $RGTI, $INFQ, $QBTS, $IBM, $GOOGL, $MSFT https://t.co/euTr23rEIp

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 1287 eng

  $PLTR Palantir moves from $122 in the premarket to $131 as the market opens. It got hit in the premarket because of the $IBM news around software spend shifting to capex spend...but that seems like an IBM problem. Quite frankly, if clients aren't willing to spend on IBM like they used to, it means that IBM has issues providing value to justify that spend. Palantir has consistently said that an enterprise's spend should only go to software that results in OUTCOMES. Without those outcomes, most software spend is useless. Satya Nadella literally quoted Alex Karp yesterday in his article about why the market needs to focus on true enterprise transformation and not just tokens. Chamath was on CNBC this morning saying that Alex Karp “deserves a medal” for being “on the right side of history" given his analysis around how the foundation model companies are stealing IP and don't actually care about producing value for their customers. The market taking IBM down and PLTR up is actually resulting in exactly what Alex Karp has said: The capital will be rewarded to the companies that are downstream of value creation.

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• @StockSavvyShay neutral 988 eng

  $NOW and $IBM are expanding their partnership to help enterprises unlock AI across legacy apps, messy data and IT operations. The collaboration combines ServiceNow AI Platform with IBM watsonx and automation tools with new solutions expected in 2H26. https://t.co/np7qq1YvPO

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• @wallstengine bearish 909 eng

  SAASOCALYPSE 5.0!? $IBM CEO Arvind Krishna: “In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.” IBM “did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization,” and said clients were also distracted by “rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns.” Krishna also said: “We did not adapt and move quickly enough,” with large deals failing to close on expected timelines.

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• @StockSavvyShay bearish 633 eng

  $IBM is down more than 23% after revenue missed estimates driven by “weakness in the software and infrastructure business.” CEO Arvind Krishna said clients shifted capex toward supply-constrained servers, storage and memory, a move IBM “did not anticipate” at this scale. https://t.co/T4wAkDAAPz

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