$NVDA 0.68 Rising Signal

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 4304 eng

  so Trump's annual financials came out today he made $635M off his memecoin then he bought a minimum of $1M of stock in companies like $AMZN $PLTR $MSFT $NVDA and $AAPL JD Vance's report came out and he only owns the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones 💀 i don't think we are ever going to have a President this intimately tied to the stock market and individual names within that stock market

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 3429 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Google $GOOGL is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6x to 10x more efficiently than its latest TPUs, per The Information. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and simplifying inference decisions. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to help ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency. 2. Microsoft $MSFT is expanding its partnership with AMD $AMD and will deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale systems on Azure for frontier AI inference. The platform combines MI455X GPUs, Venice CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, with shipments to Microsoft beginning in the second half of 2026. Azure will also add new AMD-powered virtual machines for agentic AI, data pipelines, and semiconductor design, marking a broader adoption of AMD’s full AI infrastructure stack. 3. AUM in U.S. leveraged semiconductor ETFs has fallen $63B from the June peak to $100B, the lowest level since late April. That marks a 39% decline, the largest drawdown since April 2025, when assets more than halved from their August high. The semiconductor unwind accounts for 63% of the broader $100B drop in AUM across all U.S. leveraged ETFs over the same period. The selloff follows a massive ramp, with assets in these funds nearly tripling between late March and the June peak. Even after the pullback, leveraged semiconductor ETF assets are still up 400% from January 2023 levels. 4. Archer $ACHR and Anduril unveiled Thunder, an autonomous attack VTOL aircraft, with first flight planned for 2027. The runway-independent hybrid-electric aircraft is designed to operate autonomously alongside crewed attack and assault aircraft. The dual-use platform features tiltrotors and modular payloads for both defense and commercial missions. Full-scale surrogate flights have already been completed, and Archer plans to announce its first commercial customers later this week. 5. Chinese AI models are taking record share among U.S. firms on OpenRouter. The proportion of tokens used by American companies running through Chinese models has climbed to roughly 58%, a record high. OpenRouter lets developers access and compare models from multiple providers, making it a useful real-world signal of AI model adoption. Chinese model usage has tripled since mid-January, overtaking U.S. peers on the platform for the first time in March and briefly hitting 63% in early July. At the start of 2025, Chinese models were under 10% of usage, while U.S. models were around 80%. DeepSeek has become the most popular choice among American firms in recent months. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.1M contracts, $TSLA with 2.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.8M contracts, $MU with 951K contracts, $MSFT with 884K contracts, $AMZN with 691K contracts, $INTC with 640K contracts, $SPCX with 606K contracts, $AMD with 506K contracts, and $GOOGL with 492K contracts. 7. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on CoreWeave $CRWV with a $140 price target. Analyst Tal Liani raised FY26 capex estimates to $34B from $29B, saying capex remains a key indicator of buildout progress and hardware pricing. BofA expects Q2 operating margin of 2.4%, slightly below the Street at 2.8%, but sees margins improving through the rest of the year as active power drives revenue recognition. By Q4, BofA expects operating margin to reach 14.6%, up from 1.0% in Q1, showing strong operating leverage. The firm also pushed back on competition concerns from SpaceX and Meta, arguing AI compute demand still far exceeds supply, making access to capacity the real bottleneck rather than provider choice. 8. IREN $IREN raised its 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to over $4B, up from its prior target of $3.7B. The company announced new AI cloud contracts representing $2.8B in total contract value, with approximately 85% of the updated ARR target now under contract. Goldman Sachs estimates the newly announced contracts represent an additional roughly $1B in contracted revenue with an average term of around 3 years. IREN also said recent agreements include customer prepayments covering about 45% of GPU capex, with customer contracts having a weighted average term of approximately 4 years. 9. UBS says Micron $MU could repurchase more than 40% of its shares by the end of 2028. The firm expects Micron to generate over $40B in free cash flow through 2028, and once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, UBS says the company could potentially use that cash to buy back more than 40% of its shares at the current price. Morgan Stanley said that memory stocks are trading at attractive prices but their best risk to reward names in the semi space are $NVDA Nvidia and $AVGO Broadcom. 10. Bloom Energy $BE shares are trading lower after New Mexico regulators rejected permits for a gas pipeline planned to supply Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center for the second time. The decision could delay the campus, which is expected to use up to 2.5GW of Bloom Energy’s gas-powered fuel cells. Energy Transfer may now pursue an alternative pipeline route. 11. Intel $INTC plans additional layoffs in its data center group as part of a broader effort to become a more focused and efficient company, CNBC reports. Intel said the unit is realigning roles and skills for long-term success, though the number of affected employees was not disclosed. 12. Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to what the White House calls Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. products. The tariffs cover different categories of Canadian imports, including products ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and apply even if goods originate under USMCA. Exemptions include energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, fish, critical minerals, and certain other products. The tariffs take effect 30 days after signing. WALL STREET IS THE GREATST SHOW ON EARTH,

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• @StockSavvyShay neutral 3410 eng

  UPDATED FIB LEVELS FOR POPULAR STOCKS AI Utilities • $IREN $51 • $NBIS $177 • $CIFR $17 • $CRWV $100 AI Power • $EOSE $7 • $BE $237 • $NVTS $22 • $VRT $282 AI Hardware • $NVDA $192 • $TSM $408 • $ASML $1,618 • $MU $730 AI Applications • $PLTR $129 • $NOW $109 • $CRWD $598 • $SNOW $181 AI Connectivity • $AVGO $377 • $ALAB $305 • $CRDO $195 • $MRVL $236 Space • $RKLB $106 • $ASTS $89 • $PL $31 • $BKSY $32 Quantum • $IONQ $52 • $RGTI $15 • $QBTS $20 • $INFQ $13 Drones • $ONDS $10 • $AVAV $175 • $KTOS $52 • $UMAC $24 Nuclear • $OKLO $50 • $UUUU $12 • $GEV $906 • $LEU $151 Photonics • $AAOI $164 • $LITE $698 • $COHR $283 • $AEHR $76 CPU Bottleneck • $AMD $383 • $INTC $91 • $ARM $299 • $AMKR $57 Physical AI • $TSLA $382 • $AMZN $230 • $GOOGL $357 • $ISRG $394

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 2828 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Alphabet $GOOGL delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage. 2. AMD $AMD and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia. 3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran. 4. Tesla $TSLA reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026. 5. Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $TSLA with 844K contracts, $AMZN with 828K contracts, $MU with 803K contracts, $SMCI with 746K contracts, $SPCX with 745K contracts, $MSFT with 722K contracts, $INTC with 548K contracts, and $PLTR with 540K contracts. 7. Google $GOOGL raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure. 8. ServiceNow $NOW delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123. 9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $PYPL. 10. Apple $AAPL is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability. 11. Baird reiterated Nebius $NBIS at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market. 12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 2740 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Citadel bought the bulk of Situational Awareness’ public-equities portfolio after the firm’s assets reportedly fell from $45B to around $10B, with the fund said to have been running roughly 4x leverage. Goldman was involved in the sale talks, while Millennium also submitted a bid. The context is brutal: Citadel itself helped fuel surprise rate-hike fears into FOMC, the market then sold off aggressively, and high-beta semiconductor names saw extreme drawdowns that compounded pressure across the space. With Situational Awareness heavily levered into that unwind, margin pressure appears to have forced the fund to unload public assets at distressed levels. Citadel then stepped in as the buyer, effectively taking the other side of the liquidation after helping spark the narrative that contributed to the selloff. The private Anthropic stake remains, and Situational Awareness will continue operating as a private investment firm with a reported $5B stake in Anthropic. Semis rebounded and had their best day in a year as the market may have interpreted the liquidation as a bottoming event to the structural deleveraging that took place. 2. Amazon $AMZN reported a strong Q2’26, with revenue up 20% YoY to $200.6B vs $196.47B expected and operating income up 43% YoY to $27.5B vs $23.53B expected. AWS revenue grew 37% YoY to $42.2B vs $40.5B expected, with AWS operating margin reaching 39.4% vs 33.8% expected. North America revenue came in at $116.2B, while International revenue rose 15% YoY to $42.2B. EPS was $5.75, helped by a $53.4B non-operating gain primarily tied to Amazon’s Anthropic investment. Q3 revenue guidance of $197B–$202B came in below the $204.07B estimate, while operating income guidance of $22.5B–$26.5B was roughly in line. Management said AWS posted its fastest growth in 18 quarters, with both AI and chips surpassing $25B run rates, while advertising grew 26% YoY. 3. Apple $AAPL reported Q3’26 revenue of $109.42B vs $108.85B expected, up 16.4% YoY, with EPS of $2.02 vs $1.89 expected, up 28.7% YoY. iPhone revenue grew 21.7% YoY to $54.25B, Mac revenue jumped 28.7% YoY to $10.35B, and Products revenue rose 18.1% YoY to $78.68B. Services missed estimates at $30.74B, while Greater China also came in below expectations at $18.82B, though still up 22.4% YoY. Operating income beat at $35.7B, net income reached $29.79B, and 9-month operating cash flow rose 43.1% YoY to $117B. Apple also declared a $0.27/share dividend and said its active device installed base hit a new all-time high across all major product categories and regions. 4. Tesla $TSLA is reportedly considering a separation of its China business ahead of a potential SpaceX $SPCX deal, per WSJ. Advisers have discussed options including a spinoff, sale, or closure, while executives have been told to prepare for a possible split, though plans remain early and could change. A standalone China unit would create a regulatory firewall between Tesla and SpaceX, a major U.S. defense contractor, helping address concerns around Chinese customer data, dual-use technology, and Beijing oversight. China represented about 18% of Tesla’s sales in the first half of 2026 and includes two major Shanghai factories, while SpaceX generated 20.9% of its 2025 business from the U.S. government. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.8M contracts, $MSFT with 1.9M contracts, $TSLA with 1.6M contracts, $AMZN with 1.2M contracts, $AAPL with 1.0M contracts, $META with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 984K contracts, $INTC with 753K contracts, $SPCX with 685K contracts, and $IREN with 569K contracts. 6. OpenAI reportedly cut prices for GPT-5.6, per Axios. Pricing for GPT-5.6 Luna was reduced by roughly 80% to $0.20 per million input tokens, while GPT-5.6 Terra pricing was cut by 20% to $2 per million input tokens. 7. U.S. Q2 advance GDP came in at 1.5% vs 2.0% expected, while initial jobless claims were 197K vs 200K expected and continued claims came in at 1.782M vs 1.795M expected. Inflation was largely in line, with headline PCE at 3.7% YoY and -0.1% MoM, while core PCE came in at 3.3% YoY and 0.1% MoM vs 0.2% expected. Personal spending rose 0.3% MoM vs 0.4% expected, personal income increased 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, and real personal spending matched estimates at 0.4% MoM. 8. AUM in South Korea’s leveraged ETFs has fallen by $37B, or roughly 70%, from its all-time high just over 30 days ago, bringing total assets down to about $16B, the lowest since early April. The unwind follows a massive 500% surge since the start of 2026, with domestic-listed funds driving most of the decline and making up around 70% of total leveraged ETF assets. The collapse in leveraged products comes as Korea’s KOSPI rebounded nearly 15% alongside a broader rally in global chip stocks. 9. DeepSeek is reportedly targeting a 1GW AI data center buildout, with plans for a new campus in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, while also leasing additional capacity, per Bloomberg. At least part of the compute is expected to come online by late 2027 or early 2028, though it remains unclear which chips will power the project. The buildout would be larger than any AI facility currently operated by a Chinese company, but still below the 3GW and 5GW AI campuses being developed in the U.S. Chinese rival https://t.co/I2N30dKtXk is also pursuing a 1GW project using only domestically produced chips. 10. $GOOGL Google is backing Anthropic’s planned Texas AI campus, with Nexus Data Centers reportedly in advanced talks for $15B in financing led by Morgan Stanley, per WSJ. The project would include a 1.6GW data center campus and natural-gas power plant in Hubbard, Texas. Anthropic has signed four data-center leases and related power-purchase agreements, while Google would guarantee billions of dollars in lease and power obligations if Anthropic defaults and is expected to receive roughly a 20% equity stake in the project. The campus would run on Google TPUs co-designed with Broadcom, with the chips financed separately through a vendor-financing agreement between Anthropic and Broadcom. 11. The EU opened its AI gigafactory tender, with Brussels set to choose up to 7 projects backed by as much as €10B in EU and national funding and expected to draw at least €20B in private capital. Each facility would house at least 100,000 advanced AI chips, roughly 4x the scale of current EU AI factories, supporting frontier model training, fine-tuning, and inference while giving compute access to startups, industry, researchers, and public agencies. The projects are expected to more than double Europe’s existing 19-factory AI network, while also creating demand for European-designed AI processors and eventually supporting domestic chip manufacturing. Bids close November 12, with awards expected in July 2027. 12. Amazon $AMZN said it is raising 2026 cash CapEx to $220B, up from its prior estimate of about $200B, largely because higher memory costs are pushing infrastructure spend higher. The company said that even at this level, it still will not have enough capacity to satisfy all demand in 2026, and expects the same capacity constraint to continue into 2027. Amazon added that demand already visible for 2028 is “striking,” while emphasizing that it typically buys servers and networking equipment only a few months before deployment, giving it strong visibility before committing capital. Management said if the demand is not there, it will not spend on the equipment. I know I say it everyday, but today is one of those days that reminds you... WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting mixed 2706 eng

  Long post, but some thoughts on what happened in the market today… Today was a particularly weird storm of price action because the logic going into the open was as follows: - $MU crushed, saved the AI trade - AI stocks should go higher due to MU proving its not cyclical, this should help the broader market get a lift Instead, what we got right before the open… - $AAPL announces massive price hikes and effectively uses MU earnings to be like, “See! It’s not us, but if memory gets 86% margins, then we have to raise prices!” - This happens right after the hottest PCE in 3 years is reported, even with oil (the biggest proponent of inflation the past few months) still coming down - Microsoft then joins the party and raises prices across all XBOX products, once again citing memory costs Market then proceeds to take a nasty dip in every sector…except Memory. I think what is happening here will be studied for a long time. The hyperscalers, the companies that are RESPONSIBLE for $MU and $SNDK being multibaggers, are getting destroyed because…well they can’t buy back stock, they can’t get FCF positive, and they don’t have memory’s pricing power. In fact, this is what Melius Research came out today and said: “Why bother owning a hyperscaler who can't buy back stock any time soon? Micron can start buying over $25B/quarter in stock during CY27. Memory will go down as THE BOTTLENECK of ALL BOTTLENECKS for this AI era. MU said that current conditions last after calendar 2027, basically guaranteeing buybacks of epic proportions, especially next calendar year.” We are at the point where the sell-side is saying that owning the best companies in the world makes no sense when you can own the bottleneck of all bottlenecks. Here’s the thing: I don’t know if Melius is actually wrong. My gut tells me that 86% gross margins will not last forever, but as long as the hyperscalers are willing to pay, then the structural logic for market participants comes down to a simple question: why own the companies paying the capex over the companies benefiting from it? The problem is obvious: if memory inflation continues to be intense, it will affect every part of the market. From automotive to datacenters to PCs. $NVDA gets to have a tax because it’s building very IP-heavy products. Will the market allow something like memory, that is not IP-heavy, to force consumers globally to pay significantly more for the products? Also, do the memory makers even care because as long as they control supply, they can control pricing? I’d imagine the big tech companies either lower capex to stop paying the cost, keep paying the cost, or try to innovate. They likely won’t lower capex and will most likely continue paying the cost, so there probably are some elements of them trying to focus on innovating in this area…but if there won’t be any menaingful cutoff in capex, the memory story continues. The market fell today because higher inflation means more of a chance for rate hikes. I mean, NVDA went below 200 as MU hit all time highs. NVDA’s suppliers are more valuable than NVDA’s biggest customers. As a result, it’s creating a type of AI-flation that basically led the market to sell off everything else. Not sure how this plays out, retail continues to buy the dip and today’s red probably gets bought…especially as earnings continue to grow…but we are in a new paradigm for how this market gives a premium to a stock and if you have pricing power over a component that matters to build AI vs being a companies that actually uses AI, you get a premium.

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• @Mr_Derivatives neutral 2701 eng

  $MU $NVDA $META $MSFT Don't overthink it. https://t.co/3YQ0GvpKez

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 2687 eng

  Woah. Nvidia $NVDA just created a new line of business for themselves. So, all those neoclouds like $CRWV $NBIS $IREN $APLD $SPCX that have been getting deals with hyperscalers worth billions? It’s because demand for compute, according to Jensen, is growing at a level that is beyond imagination. So, companies need to secure more compute. But, many of these neoclouds are struggling to finance large GPU deployments, even after securing long-term compute demand. So…Nvidia is going to help them out and share in the upside. “This new model enables AI clouds to procure NVIDIA infrastructure for AI-native, enterprise and ISV customers through economic alignment with a revenue-sharing and credit-support model. Through the partnership, AI clouds will sell NVIDIA-powered cloud services, with NVIDIA earning both standard product revenue and a share of the cloud revenue on the supported capacity. This structure accelerates adoption of NVIDIA platforms among the high-growth, high-conviction AI native sector, and provides NVIDIA with a recurring, usage-linked earnings stream.” Looks like Nvidia is going to make sure the best neoclouds don’t fail and this also shifts from a one-time GPU sale to a recurring, usage-based revenue stream…which just creates many more longer-term monetization opportunities.

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