$RDDT 0.48 Noisy

Notable posts

• @amitisinvesting neutral 2064 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Broadcom $AVGO said it has a “high degree of confidence” it will ship $350B of AI semiconductors over the next 2 years, even if all 30 GW of demand is not deployed because of land, power, and data center constraints. The company laid out a massive AI growth path, targeting AI semiconductor revenue of roughly $58B in FY26, $115B in FY27, and $230B in FY28 — a 4x increase in just 2 years. Broadcom said every 1 GW deployed by OpenAI or Anthropic could support about $30B in annual AI revenue, while AI networking revenue is expected to grow just as fast as its XPU business. In Q3’26, Broadcom reported revenue of $29.6B, beating estimates of $29.36B and up 86% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $3.32 versus $3.24 expected. AI semiconductor revenue surged 221% YoY to $16.7B, and Broadcom expects that to accelerate to $21.7B in Q4, up 236% YoY, while also targeting $30+ EPS in FY28. 2. Meta $META rolled out Muse Spark 1.3, saying the latest model delivers its biggest coding and agentic performance jump yet. Meta says Muse Spark 1.3 matches GPT-5.6 Sol on Terminal-Bench 2.1 with a score of 88.8 and reaches 75.4 on DeepSWE. The model is available now through Muse Code and the API. Zuckerberg also teased Watermelon and open weights coming next, signaling Meta is continuing to push aggressively on frontier coding agents and open AI distribution. 3. Nvidia-backed neocloud Nscale is telling prospective IPO investors it has roughly $103B in contracted revenue, up from $51B before its $45B compute deal with Anthropic, according to The Information. The contracts average 5.7 years, implying about $18B of future contracted revenue per year, though the figure is not current revenue or formal guidance and was described by one source as “illustrative.” Actual revenue is still much smaller but scaling quickly, rising from about $37M in Q1 2026 to more than $100M in Q2, excluding the Anthropic deal, as Nscale prepares for an IPO that could come as soon as this month. 4. HPE $HPE expanded its Oracle $ORCL AI data center deal, with HPE set to deploy Juniper networking gear across Oracle AI data centers globally under a potential multi-year agreement. The deal covers routing, switching, networking support, and financing for OCI’s AI clusters, regional data centers, and edge networks, while HPE also issued Oracle warrants to purchase HPE shares. Separately, HPE reported Q3’26 revenue of $12.2B, beating estimates of $11.91B and up 34% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $1.11 versus $0.93 expected. Networking revenue surged 74.9% YoY to $2.9B, while Cloud & AI revenue rose 25.4% YoY to $9.0B. HPE guided Q4 revenue to $13.9B–$14.8B, above the $12.96B estimate, raised FY26 guidance, and said AI is becoming a multi-year growth driver as record backlog supports the outlook. 5. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Tempus $TEM at Overweight with an $80 price target, arguing the company is being mispriced as a traditional life sciences data vendor rather than an AI-powered platform business. The firm says Tempus’ Data & Applications segment has a stronger growth and margin profile than the market is giving it credit for, with 26% growth and 76% gross margins. Cantor believes the segment should be compared more closely to platform peers like $PLTR, $SNOW, $DDOG, and $RDDT rather than slower-growing data-vendor peers, creating a favorable upside risk/reward. 6. Google $GOOGL launched Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a new cybersecurity-focused AI model that scored 86.2% on CyberGym and 47.2% on CWE-Bench. Google says the model has a 70%+ success rate identifying vulnerabilities across 20 programming languages and produced 2.6x more correct patches than larger models on real Chrome security bugs. Initial access is limited to government agencies and cybersecurity partners through Google’s Fairwind program. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.7M contracts, $TSLA with 2.8M contracts, $AAPL with 1.7M contracts, $META with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 959K contracts, $AMZN with 732K contracts, $PLTR with 675K contracts, $DELL with 633K contracts, $INTC with 557K contracts, and $GOOGL with 536K contracts. 8. JPMorgan says a 5% 10-year Treasury yield could be the level that starts to pressure stocks, with Grace Peters noting that “5% psychologically has an impact” and could trigger a knee-jerk equity selloff. She sees a potential 5%-8% correction into the midterms, but views that as a healthy pullback rather than a structural break. JPMorgan remains constructive on stocks longer term, with its thesis centered on a capex-driven earnings supercycle, while the key medium-term test for AI will be whether the spending translates into real returns. 9. Berenberg initiated Rocket Lab $RKLB at Buy with an $83 price target, implying about 29%-35% upside, calling it the only end-to-end public pure-play in space across launch, satellites, components, and spectrum. The firm says Rocket Lab has an effective monopoly in dedicated small-lift launch, is entering medium-lift with Neutron, and is benefiting from rapid growth in satellite manufacturing and components as space budgets hit records. Berenberg also said the Iridium acquisition adds scarce global spectrum and recurring applications revenue, while Rocket Lab’s vertical integration gives it long-term optionality not fully reflected in the stock’s valuation. While acknowledging execution risk and a high multiple, the firm called Rocket Lab one of the most compelling long-term assets in the space sector and said it would buy or add on volatility. 10. The 60+ day delinquency rate on U.S. subprime auto loans has climbed to roughly 5.2%, the highest level on record and more than double where it was four years ago. Serious subprime auto delinquencies are now about 1.7 percentage points above their 2008 financial crisis peak, while prime auto loan delinquencies have also risen to around 0.4%, near the highest level since 2011. At the same time, total U.S. auto debt increased by $28B in Q2 2026 to a record $1.71T. 11. Onchain tokenized equity holders have reached a record 1.9M, up 134% month-over-month and 1,360% year-to-date. Just 10 months ago, fewer than 100,000 people held tokenized assets, but demand for 24/7 markets and access to names tied to the record IPO wave, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, has accelerated adoption. Jupiter, the largest onchain trading platform on Solana, has driven much of the growth, with 61% of volume now happening during off-hours and active tokenized equity traders up 46% month-over-month. 12. Microsoft $MSFT will begin disclosing Azure revenue as part of a major FY27 reporting overhaul, shifting from three business segments to two: Agents & Infrastructure and Devices & Consumer. For Q1 FY27, Microsoft expects Azure growth of 44%-45% in constant currency, Agents & Infrastructure revenue of $75.15B-$75.75B, Devices & Consumer revenue of $14.7B-$15.2B, Microsoft 365 Commercial Cloud growth of about 17% in constant currency, and Search & Ads ex-TAC growth in the mid-to-high single digits. The new structure marks Microsoft’s biggest reporting change since adopting its prior three-segment model in FY2016. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 1779 eng

  Did a stock draft with some friends and these are the 12 picks I have to hold until June 2027… 1. $NVDA 2. $AMD 3. $GEV 4. $TXN 5. $RKLB 6. $RDDT 7. $GOOGL 8. $FIX 9. $AAPL 10. $GLXY 11. $SNDK 12. $BE Am I cooked?

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1734 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. SanDisk $SNDK laid out its investor day targets, guiding for mid-to-high teens revenue growth, roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margins, and about 50% adjusted free cash flow margins. The company also expects to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. SanDisk highlighted its HBF technology as a potential major efficiency unlock for AI inference, saying internal testing showed 1 HBF GPU could run the same model that required 8 HBM GPUs, implying 8x CapEx efficiency, while 4 HBF GPUs matched the token output of 8 HBM GPUs, implying 2x GPU efficiency. $SNDK was up 14%. 2. U.S. PPI came in slightly cooler on the headline number, rising 4.7% YoY versus 4.9% expected and 0.0% MoM versus 0.2% expected. Core PPI was mixed, rising 4.2% YoY versus 4.1% expected, but only 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% expected. Initial jobless claims came in at 209K versus 202K expected, while continued claims were 1.777M versus 1.794M expected. 3. Norway’s $2.3T sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, generated a record $184.3B profit in H1 2026. The fund returned 9.4% over the period, with its 72.1% equity allocation up 13.0%. In Q2 alone, the portfolio gained 11.5%, its strongest quarter since Q2 2020, led by equities returning 16.0% as AI-related names drove performance. Nvidia $NVDA remained the fund’s largest holding at the end of H1, followed by Microsoft $MSFT and Apple $AAPL. Norway’s fund now owns roughly 1.5% of all publicly listed companies globally and has become one of the world’s largest institutional investors in AI-related stocks. 4. OpenAI’s annualized revenue has reportedly topped $40B, roughly doubling its run rate from the end of 2025, according to Bloomberg. July run-rate revenue rose more than 20% MoM, driven by strength in Codex, subscriptions, and early ad sales, highlighting how quickly OpenAI’s monetization is scaling across both consumer and business lines. 5. Reddit $RDDT is set to join the S&P 500 before the open on August 18, replacing AvalonBay Communities $AVB. AvalonBay is being acquired by Equity Residential $EQR, with the combined company expected to remain in the index under the new name Vivmark Residential $VMRK. S&P Dow Jones Indices also announced that Sun Communities $SUI will join the S&P MidCap 400 before the open on August 20, replacing Webster Financial $WBS, which is being acquired by Banco Santander $SAN. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.4M contracts, $TSLA with 2.0M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 1.0M contracts, $AAPL with 881K contracts, $INTC with 863K contracts, $SMCI with 843K contracts, $NFLX with 681K contracts, $PLTR with 625K contracts, and $AMZN with 600K contracts. 7. Ondas $ONDS reported Q2’26 revenue of $83.8M, beating estimates of $68M and up 67% QoQ. Adjusted gross margin came in at 50.4%, while adjusted EBITDA was -$50.6M versus -$32M expected. Backlog reached $613M, or $757M pro forma including DZYNE and Cyberhawk, with $175M of new orders in Q2 and another $105M already in Q3 to date. Ondas raised FY26 revenue guidance to $525M–$550M versus $509M expected and guided Q3 revenue to $140M–$155M. The company also pulled forward its profitability timeline, now targeting platform-level adjusted EBITDA profitability by Q4 2026 and company-wide profitability by Q4 2027. Key wins included a $52.9M lethal unmanned strike order, more than $240M of captured orders under a $982M Army IDIQ program, and NASA raising its Stratollite IDIQ ceiling from $45M to $395M. 8. Nu Holdings $NU reported Q2’26 revenue of $5.51B, beating estimates of $5.23B, up 50.3% YoY. Diluted EPS came in at $0.216 versus $0.20 expected, while net income rose 66.8% YoY to $1.06B. Gross profit increased 51.6% YoY to $2.35B, total assets grew 31.9% YoY to $82.75B, and total interest income and gains reached $4.76B, up 52.1% YoY. On the balance sheet, deposits rose 23.7% YoY to $45.33B, credit card receivables increased 42.1% YoY to $21.49B, loans to customers grew 43.8% YoY to $11.32B, and total equity reached $13.25B. 9. Elon Musk disclosed ownership of 6,418,547,515 SpaceX $SPCX shares in a new SEC filing, representing a 48.4% stake in the company. Based on the filing, Musk’s stake is valued at roughly $908.35B. 10. Nebius $NBIS is facing permitting-related delays at its Vineland data center after Hunterbrook reported a second stop-construction order at the site. The first order, issued on August 6, paused LNG tank work, while the second, issued on August 10, paused Bloom Energy $BE fuel-cell work after the city said required approvals and permits had not been secured. Nebius said on August 12 that it does not expect a material impact to the project timeline and confirmed that Vineland capacity remains included in its 2026 connected power targets. The main building structure was completed earlier this summer, engineering fit-out is underway, and fuel-cell installation is expected to move quickly once the permitting issues are resolved. 11. OpenAI is replacing chief revenue officer Denise Dresser less than a year after she joined the company. Dresser is leaving to pursue other opportunities, while Dali Rajic, president and COO of Alphabet-owned Wiz, will take over the role. The move marks another major leadership change as OpenAI scales revenue across enterprise, subscriptions, APIs, and new monetization channels. 12. Hedge funds bought $6.8B of U.S. equities last week, the largest weekly purchase in 18 years. As a share of S&P 500 market cap, it ranked as the 9th-largest weekly buy since 2008. This follows $4.8B of purchases the week before, bringing total hedge fund buying to $11.6B over the last 2 weeks, the largest two-week purchase on record. The 4-week average of hedge fund purchases has now risen to $1.8B. Meanwhile, institutional investors sold $1.1B, their second straight weekly sale, while retail investors sold $4.1B, pushing their 4-week average selling to $500M. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 1416 eng

  S a a S S u m m e r $PLTR 107 —> $179 $SHOP $97 —> $157 $RDDT $120 —> $155 $ADBE $193 —> $271 $NOW $80 —> $125 $DDOG $105 —> $252 $TEAM $57 —> $165 $ZETA $18 —> $29 $IGV +42% from April lows anyone who took a chance on software over the past few months, especially in the face of semis ripping higher daily, deserves to enjoy this one quality businesses that are governing and orchestrating tokens got sold off for fears from model companies that ultimately will be providing AI tools to make the application layer even stronger the rotation to SaaS is also not taking away from semis which is strong for the broader health of the market

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 1246 eng

  $RDDT REDDIT ADDED TO THE S&P 500 LETS. GO. https://t.co/4yQz4pITB0

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• @amitisinvesting bearish 950 eng

  reason markets are struggling right now... - trump putting a new 20% "cargo tariff" means prices could go up, meaning inflation goes up, meaning more potential for rate hikes - iran is proxy targeting refineries against middle eastern allies including bahrain and kuwait, not good for oil prices or general escalation - kospi got wrecked last night -9% which is hurting the $SKHY SK Hynix along with the memory names in the US and if the memory names get hurt, the rest of the semis follow the good thing is, software names $IGV $PLTR $SHOP $RDDT $CRM $NOW $ADBE $FIG $ZETA are getting some of the rotation so the broader breadth of the market is widening out high-beta names in July have just not done well and it feels like this July is becoming very similar to the past 5 years, which is really just creating a month of consolidation for the most momentum driven names

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• @StockSavvyShay neutral 664 eng

  NEXT WEEKS EARNINGS ARE MASSIVE • Monday | $APLD, $NVTS, $CDNS, $AMKR • Tuesday | $BE, $KLAC, $PYPL, $V, $TER, $ENPH • Wednesday | $MSFT, $META, $HOOD, $ARM, $QCOM, $SOFI, $VRT, $LMND, $LRCX, $VKTX, $FTNT, $CVNA • Thursday | $AAPL, $AMZN, $COIN, $RBLX, $RDDT, $TEM, $RIVN, $FSLR, $MA, $PGY, $MSTR, $AXTI, $NXT • FRIDAY | $CVX, $XOM, $ABBV, $CCJ, $MRNA

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• @amitisinvesting mixed 610 eng

  Futures are up, bitcoin is up, and oil is down because of reports that the US and Iran have stopped strikes against each other for the time being. Trump was supposed to strike on Friday but ordered the military not to, and as a result Iran's retaliation was stopped because there wasn't anything to retaliate to. I am not sure if this is a sign of actual progress that can lead to something meaningful, but if there was ever a time for some type of ceasefire, it would be when... - The 10-yr passed 4.7% - Oil was up 25% in a month - The sector responsible for the majority of the S&P 500's earnings growth (SMH) was down 16% - Rate hike probabilities passed 75% for October - US national gas prices passed $4/gallon again Any escalation would just lead to more inflation and uncertainty for stocks which obviously wouldn't be the best for the broader economy. The big headline on Friday was that China talked to Trump and assured him they would never sell weapons to Iran while others reported that China is actually trying to secure a peace deal between Iran and the US. Maybe there is some truth to this given Trump responded to a reporter on Friday and said, "we are talking to them, maybe there won't be a tipping point, maybe there will be," implying that there might be more talks happening that are positive even though every set of talks recently has not resulted in anything closer to peace. Big earnings this week with $MSFT $META $HOOD $AAPL $AMZN $SOFI $RDDT $V $UPS $MA and more along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It will be Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Fed Chair. Hoping we get some relief as more escalation would really just create an ugly environment for inflation, risk on assets, and the potential for rate cuts.

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