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• @amitisinvesting bullish 2828 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Alphabet $GOOGL delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage. 2. AMD $AMD and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia. 3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran. 4. Tesla $TSLA reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026. 5. Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $TSLA with 844K contracts, $AMZN with 828K contracts, $MU with 803K contracts, $SMCI with 746K contracts, $SPCX with 745K contracts, $MSFT with 722K contracts, $INTC with 548K contracts, and $PLTR with 540K contracts. 7. Google $GOOGL raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure. 8. ServiceNow $NOW delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123. 9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $PYPL. 10. Apple $AAPL is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability. 11. Baird reiterated Nebius $NBIS at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market. 12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1734 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. SanDisk $SNDK laid out its investor day targets, guiding for mid-to-high teens revenue growth, roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margins, and about 50% adjusted free cash flow margins. The company also expects to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. SanDisk highlighted its HBF technology as a potential major efficiency unlock for AI inference, saying internal testing showed 1 HBF GPU could run the same model that required 8 HBM GPUs, implying 8x CapEx efficiency, while 4 HBF GPUs matched the token output of 8 HBM GPUs, implying 2x GPU efficiency. $SNDK was up 14%. 2. U.S. PPI came in slightly cooler on the headline number, rising 4.7% YoY versus 4.9% expected and 0.0% MoM versus 0.2% expected. Core PPI was mixed, rising 4.2% YoY versus 4.1% expected, but only 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% expected. Initial jobless claims came in at 209K versus 202K expected, while continued claims were 1.777M versus 1.794M expected. 3. Norway’s $2.3T sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, generated a record $184.3B profit in H1 2026. The fund returned 9.4% over the period, with its 72.1% equity allocation up 13.0%. In Q2 alone, the portfolio gained 11.5%, its strongest quarter since Q2 2020, led by equities returning 16.0% as AI-related names drove performance. Nvidia $NVDA remained the fund’s largest holding at the end of H1, followed by Microsoft $MSFT and Apple $AAPL. Norway’s fund now owns roughly 1.5% of all publicly listed companies globally and has become one of the world’s largest institutional investors in AI-related stocks. 4. OpenAI’s annualized revenue has reportedly topped $40B, roughly doubling its run rate from the end of 2025, according to Bloomberg. July run-rate revenue rose more than 20% MoM, driven by strength in Codex, subscriptions, and early ad sales, highlighting how quickly OpenAI’s monetization is scaling across both consumer and business lines. 5. Reddit $RDDT is set to join the S&P 500 before the open on August 18, replacing AvalonBay Communities $AVB. AvalonBay is being acquired by Equity Residential $EQR, with the combined company expected to remain in the index under the new name Vivmark Residential $VMRK. S&P Dow Jones Indices also announced that Sun Communities $SUI will join the S&P MidCap 400 before the open on August 20, replacing Webster Financial $WBS, which is being acquired by Banco Santander $SAN. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.4M contracts, $TSLA with 2.0M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 1.0M contracts, $AAPL with 881K contracts, $INTC with 863K contracts, $SMCI with 843K contracts, $NFLX with 681K contracts, $PLTR with 625K contracts, and $AMZN with 600K contracts. 7. Ondas $ONDS reported Q2’26 revenue of $83.8M, beating estimates of $68M and up 67% QoQ. Adjusted gross margin came in at 50.4%, while adjusted EBITDA was -$50.6M versus -$32M expected. Backlog reached $613M, or $757M pro forma including DZYNE and Cyberhawk, with $175M of new orders in Q2 and another $105M already in Q3 to date. Ondas raised FY26 revenue guidance to $525M–$550M versus $509M expected and guided Q3 revenue to $140M–$155M. The company also pulled forward its profitability timeline, now targeting platform-level adjusted EBITDA profitability by Q4 2026 and company-wide profitability by Q4 2027. Key wins included a $52.9M lethal unmanned strike order, more than $240M of captured orders under a $982M Army IDIQ program, and NASA raising its Stratollite IDIQ ceiling from $45M to $395M. 8. Nu Holdings $NU reported Q2’26 revenue of $5.51B, beating estimates of $5.23B, up 50.3% YoY. Diluted EPS came in at $0.216 versus $0.20 expected, while net income rose 66.8% YoY to $1.06B. Gross profit increased 51.6% YoY to $2.35B, total assets grew 31.9% YoY to $82.75B, and total interest income and gains reached $4.76B, up 52.1% YoY. On the balance sheet, deposits rose 23.7% YoY to $45.33B, credit card receivables increased 42.1% YoY to $21.49B, loans to customers grew 43.8% YoY to $11.32B, and total equity reached $13.25B. 9. Elon Musk disclosed ownership of 6,418,547,515 SpaceX $SPCX shares in a new SEC filing, representing a 48.4% stake in the company. Based on the filing, Musk’s stake is valued at roughly $908.35B. 10. Nebius $NBIS is facing permitting-related delays at its Vineland data center after Hunterbrook reported a second stop-construction order at the site. The first order, issued on August 6, paused LNG tank work, while the second, issued on August 10, paused Bloom Energy $BE fuel-cell work after the city said required approvals and permits had not been secured. Nebius said on August 12 that it does not expect a material impact to the project timeline and confirmed that Vineland capacity remains included in its 2026 connected power targets. The main building structure was completed earlier this summer, engineering fit-out is underway, and fuel-cell installation is expected to move quickly once the permitting issues are resolved. 11. OpenAI is replacing chief revenue officer Denise Dresser less than a year after she joined the company. Dresser is leaving to pursue other opportunities, while Dali Rajic, president and COO of Alphabet-owned Wiz, will take over the role. The move marks another major leadership change as OpenAI scales revenue across enterprise, subscriptions, APIs, and new monetization channels. 12. Hedge funds bought $6.8B of U.S. equities last week, the largest weekly purchase in 18 years. As a share of S&P 500 market cap, it ranked as the 9th-largest weekly buy since 2008. This follows $4.8B of purchases the week before, bringing total hedge fund buying to $11.6B over the last 2 weeks, the largest two-week purchase on record. The 4-week average of hedge fund purchases has now risen to $1.8B. Meanwhile, institutional investors sold $1.1B, their second straight weekly sale, while retail investors sold $4.1B, pushing their 4-week average selling to $500M. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1653 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. CoreWeave $CRWV reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.6B, slightly ahead of estimates of $2.56B, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B versus $1.43B expected and adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%. Revenue backlog reached roughly $104B, up 46% YoY, while active power more than tripled YoY to 1.5GW and contracted power increased to 4.2GW. CoreWeave raised FY26 guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B in revenue and $960M–$1.15B in adjusted operating income, while lifting its active power target to more than 1.85GW. The company now expects year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $18.5B–$19.5B, managed inference ARR above $250M exiting 2026, and long-term active power of 8GW+ by 2030. Management said customer demand is accelerating as enterprise adoption broadens and its platform deepens. 2. Gemini has become $GOOGL Google’s fastest-growing product ever, crossing 1B monthly users and becoming the company’s 14th product to reach the billion-user milestone. The scale-up underscores how quickly Google is pushing Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and its broader AI ecosystem. 3. BofA downgraded AppLovin $APP to Neutral with a $400 price target, saying risks to the company’s long-term 30% YoY revenue growth trajectory have increased. Analyst Omar Dessouky said post-Q2 growth appears to be driven more by engineer-directed improvements to Gaming models, while it is less clear whether the prior 3%–5% QoQ self-learning growth assumption still applies. BofA also noted that with AppLovin’s high relative market share, estimated at roughly 2x its next-largest competitor, long-term growth from self-learning alone may be harder to sustain than the market previously assumed. 4. President Trump is reportedly weighing a capital gains tax cut ahead of the midterms, including the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation before taxes are calculated. Under that approach, investors would only owe taxes on the inflation-adjusted “real” gain, not the full nominal gain. For example, if someone bought a business or stock position for $2M and sold it years later for $5M, the nominal gain would be $3M. But if cumulative inflation over that period was 25%, the inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $2.5M, leaving only $2.5M of taxable real gain instead of $3M. Trump has also floated capital gains exemptions for home sales worth $2M or less. There has not been a major U.S. capital gains tax cut since 2003. 5. Senator Bernie Sanders has reportedly called on major AI companies to pause development, sending letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, according to NYT. The push adds to the growing political scrutiny around frontier AI development, safety, and whether the largest labs should slow deployment as model capabilities continue advancing. 6. Apple $AAPL is reportedly still planning a glass-centric iPhone redesign for the device’s 20th anniversary in 2027, contrary to a Jefferies report that said it had been canceled, according to Bloomberg. The new Pro models are expected to feature glass that curves into the sides, with a metal band running through the middle. 7. U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06M annualized pace, slightly above estimates. Median existing home prices rose 2% YoY to $434,100, while inventory increased to 1.54M homes. The data points to a housing market that is still soft on transaction volume, but with prices remaining resilient as supply continues to build. 8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.2M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $SPCX with 861K contracts, $AAPL with 823K contracts, $MU with 664K contracts, $AMZN with 568K contracts, $PLTR with 559K contracts, $INTC with 555K contracts, $GOOGL with 546K contracts, and $HTZ with 518K contracts. 9. Supermicro $SMCI reported Q4’26 revenue of $11.1B, below estimates of $11.55B, but adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $0.96 expected, up 315% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 17.5%, up 800 bps YoY, while net income reached $1.2B, adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B, and operating income came in at $1.5B. For Q1, Supermicro guided revenue to $14.5B–$15.5B, well above estimates of $11.68B, with adjusted EPS of $1.01–$1.10. For FY27, the company guided revenue to $65B–$72B, far ahead of the $52.5B estimate. Management said Supermicro generated more than $60B in new orders and entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog, while improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of its optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions architecture. 10. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rocket Lab $RKLB and raised its price target to $132, saying the company delivered a “beat and raise” quarter with Q2 results ahead of expectations across revenue, margins, and EBITDA. Rocket Lab signed 26 new Electron/HASTE missions, expanded total launch backlog to more than 90 missions, and grew overall backlog to roughly $2.4B, with another $800M of bookings added after quarter-end. Stifel also highlighted accelerating Space Systems revenue as SDA programs ramp, multiple defense awards, and continued progress on Neutron, which remains on schedule for pad delivery in Q4’26. The firm said Rocket Lab’s Iridium acquisition, GHOST launch system, defense exposure, backlog visibility, and limited competition create a compelling long-term risk/reward despite near-term cash burn. 11. Schwab clients were net buyers of ETFs and equities in July by a 2:1 ratio. The top stocks bought were $SPCX, $MU, $INTC, $ORCL, and $TSLA, while the top stocks sold were $AAPL, $AVGO, $ADBE, $PYPL, and $AMD. The data shows retail leaning back into high-beta AI, memory, and space-linked names while trimming exposure to some of the market’s more mature tech leaders. 12. The SEC is reportedly preparing to roll out two major crypto initiatives $BTC $ETH as the Clarity Act stalls in Congress, according to Bloomberg. The agency will hold an open meeting Friday to create a tailored offering regime for certain crypto-related investment contracts. The SEC is also expected to unveil an “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized securities, potentially paving the way for 24/7 trading of stock tokens on blockchains. Details could be released as soon as Friday, though the proposal is still being finalized and could change. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1625 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Crypto markets saw their seventh-largest liquidation event on record, with $3.5B in leveraged positions wiped out over 24 hours. Despite the forced liquidations, the total crypto market cap added roughly $280B in the same period as $BTC Bitcoin crossed $72K and $ETH Ethereum moved above $2,300. The rally came alongside renewed optimism around the CLARITY Act and broader tokenization legislation. 2. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. Treasury will assess bond market conditions and take further action if needed, while focusing on fundamentals and keeping the market in equilibrium. He said U.S. yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals and that liquidity in the 30-year is “particularly poor,” while also arguing that rates had “nothing to do” with the buyback decision. Bessent reiterated that the U.S. continues to have a strong dollar policy, said 2026 tariff income should be similar to 2025, and added there is a “very good chance” the U.S. has already seen peak deficit. On Iran, he said the U.S. is pursuing “maximum pressure,” with coordinated economic isolation and action against countries doing business with Tehran, while adding that China and others want the Strait of Hormuz reopened. 3. Anthropic is reportedly adding Citigroup to its IPO bank lineup, joining Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan among the lead banks working on the listing. The company is considering filing as soon as the end of August, with more banks expected to join the deal. Anthropic is expected to debut ahead of OpenAI and is also expanding a pre-IPO credit facility beyond its roughly $10B target. If Anthropic tries to raise more than SpaceX, it could become the largest IPO ever, underscoring how intense investor demand has become for frontier AI companies. 4. Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating and $200 price target on Palantir $PLTR, saying the company continues to stand out in turning AI demand into measurable customer value while combining strong growth with profitability. The firm said Palantir’s Bootcamp reinforced its view that Ontology, AIP, and sovereign AI capabilities create durable differentiation as enterprises move AI into production. Deutsche Bank highlighted AIP Evolve as a key product for optimizing AI workflows across quality, cost, latency, and control, with the ability to test frontier, open-weight, and proprietary models, reroute workloads, rewrite prompts, or replace unnecessary model calls with deterministic code. The firm said this creates “model liquidity,” while AutoTune helps customers fine-tune models using governed workflow feedback, keeping proprietary knowledge inside their own environment and addressing major barriers to scaled enterprise AI. 5. Amazon $AMZN plans to invest more than $2B across Latin America from 2027–2030 through Prime Video, focused on original content and live sports. The company expects to more than double its Originals across 5 major markets, while also expanding NBA coverage and third-party streaming access. The push shows Amazon continuing to use Prime Video as both a content platform and a broader ecosystem driver across international markets. 6. Supermicro $SMCI said an independent investigation found no evidence that current senior management knew about the alleged export-diversion scheme involving two former employees and a contractor. The review also found no direct sales of restricted products to known restricted parties and no related issues with previously issued financial statements. Supermicro said it has terminated employees for policy violations, added new export-compliance measures, and continues to cooperate with government investigations. 7. Walmart $WMT fell 8% and posted its worst day since May 2022 after reporting its slowest U.S. comparable-sales growth in more than 6 years. Q2’27 revenue came in at $187.9B versus $186.7B expected, up 5.9% YoY, while adjusted EPS was $0.81 versus $0.74 expected. Net income reached $6.5B, above estimates of $5.91B, and global eCommerce sales grew 23%. But U.S. comps rose just 2.6%, missing the 3.7% estimate, while Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.62–$0.64 came in below the $0.68 expected. Management said consumers remained stretched, especially by higher gas prices, while lower pharmacy pricing also weighed on sales. 8. SpaceX $SPCX and AST SpaceMobile $ASTS are reportedly interested in acquiring 800 MHz spectrum licenses valued around $6B. The licenses cover nearly the entire U.S. population and could support direct-to-device satellite voice services. Preliminary bids are due in early September, with the FCC aiming to complete the process by November 5. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.1M contracts, $TSLA with 1.7M contracts, $SPCX with 1.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.0M contracts, $MSTR with 746K contracts, $INTC with 739K contracts, $MU with 679K contracts, $MRNA with 629K contracts, $WMT with 627K contracts, and $AMZN with 614K contracts. 10. The median value of U.S. consumers’ stock market investments has climbed to a record $350K, including holdings in individual stocks, mutual funds, 401(k)s, and IRAs, as per Schwab. That figure has more than doubled over the last two years and is up $150K, or 75%, since January alone. Before 2024, the median value had never meaningfully surpassed $150K. 11. Micron $MU is committing $10B over the next decade to build Micron Research Labs, a new long-term U.S. research hub based in Boise focused on advanced memory, compute architectures, chip packaging, and next-generation semiconductor manufacturing. The company expects to break ground in 2027, with the flagship facility designed to house hundreds of researchers. The investment is separate from the more than $250B Micron has already planned for U.S. manufacturing and R&D. 12. Broadcom $AVGO is reportedly seeking more than $60B in financing tied to its latest AI deal, with the full package potentially reaching nearly $100B. The structure could include $60B–$70B of senior secured debt plus roughly $30B of junior debt, while Broadcom is also discussing guaranteeing part of the senior-secured tranche. Apollo and Blackstone are in talks to participate, with the debt potentially issued through a special-purpose vehicle. The financing would help Anthropic and other AI companies secure Broadcom chips and infrastructure, and could be rolled out in stages rather than all at once. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @StockSavvyShay neutral 1587 eng

  THE NEW AI INFRASTRUCTURE STACK Piper Sandler mapped the new AI infrastructure stack across 8 layers from the power grid all the way to the agent as AI scaling creates bottlenecks across power, cooling, networking, storage, cloud & inference: Layer 1 | Power, Grid & Real Estate • $NEE building renewable power backbone hyperscalers need to scale AI • $CEG monetizing 24/7 nuclear power AI data centers increasingly require • $TLN building behind the meter nuclear power model for AI campuses • $IREN turning scarce power & interconnects into hyperscale AI capacity • $DLR owning physical real estate underneath global AI infrastructure • $EQIX owning interconnection layer where AI networks & clouds meet Layer 2 | Physical Datacenter, Shell & Cooling • $VRT building 800V DC powertrain needed for next jump in AI rack density • $SMCI assembling liquid cooled rack systems that turn GPUs into usable compute Layer 3 | Silicon & Hardware • $NVDA building compute platform underneath AI economy • $AMD building second full stack accelerator platform at hyperscale • $AVGO designing custom AI silicon behind Google TPUs & Meta MTIA as hyperscalers move deeper into proprietary compute • $GOOGL turning TPUs from an internal advantage into a hardware business sold directly into customer data centers • $INTC turning 14A into a real external foundry business with $TSLA as an anchor customer and its largest reported foundry deal yet • $ARM moving into full server CPUs & capturing the full value of the chip instead of dollars per core Layer 4 | Scale Up & Scale Out Networking • $ANET building Ethernet backbone connecting hyperscale AI clusters • $CSCO extending enterprise networking into AI data center fabric • $CLS manufacturing physical networking hardware connecting AI clusters Layer 5 | High Performance Storage • $PSTG using DirectFlash to reclaim power & rack space for AI infrastructure • $DELL bundling servers & storage into an integrated enterprise AI stack • $NTAP connecting enterprise data estates to cloud AI workloads • $HPE bringing enterprise storage into an infrastructure as a service model Layer 6 | Orchestration & Workloads • $IBM turning Red Hat OpenShift into enterprise control plane for private & hybrid AI deployments • $NTNX bringing AI infrastructure stack into private & on prem environments Layer 7 | GPUaaS & Cloud • $CRWV proving GPU residual value with fully priced A100 capacity contracted through 2029 • $NBIS building an AI cloud around 5GW of contracted power with customers prepaying 50% of capex • $DOCN bringing AI compute & inference below hyperscale cloud layer • $MSFT turning Azure into one of largest distribution layers for AI compute • $AKAM pushing AI inference closer to where users consume it • $AMZN monetizing AI through hyperscale cloud infrastructure & its own silicon • $ORCL building AI cloud capacity against a heavily concentrated backlog of large customer commitments Layer 8 | Model Execution, Tokens & Agents • $NET becoming distribution layer between AI agents and the internet as non human traffic crosses more than 50% of its network • $FSLY moving inference closer to the end user through edge compute

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1341 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nebius $NBIS reported Q2’26 revenue of $582.3M, beating estimates of $573M and up 454% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $236.2M versus $175M expected, compared to -$21M last year. AI Cloud revenue surged 514% YoY to $575M, operating cash flow reached $2.25B, and cash stood at $8.04B. Nebius reaffirmed FY26 guidance, now expects customer prepayments of more than $9B in 2026, and raised contracted capacity to 5 GW from prior guidance of more than 4 GW. Management said it could sell its entire 2027 capacity today, but is deliberately holding some back for higher-value immediate customer demand. $NBIS finished up 34% on the day. 2. July CPI came in cooler, with headline inflation rising just 0.1% MoM after falling 0.4% in June. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June. Shelter increased 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, while food also rose 0.1% and food away from home climbed 0.3%. Energy prices fell 1.5% on the month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% after being flat in June, while annual core inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%. Energy remains the biggest annual pressure point, up 14.7% YoY, while food is up 3.0% over the last year. 3. Bank of America $BAC plans to deploy $250B through mid-2027 across AI data centers, semiconductors, hardware, power generation, energy storage, and critical minerals, according to WSJ. The initiative will span lending, investing, capital markets, banking, and advisory work. BofA said equity investments are not the focus, but has not ruled them out for the right projects. The push also extends beyond AI infrastructure into transportation, natural gas, and water infrastructure. 4. Institutional investors are reducing U.S. tech exposure. Hedge funds, asset managers, and other large investors sold $21.6B of Nasdaq futures in the week ending August 4, the largest weekly sale on record, according to Goldman Sachs. Short sales drove the move, accounting for 72% of total selling. Hedge funds sold $11.9B, while asset managers sold $7.4B. As a result, combined institutional positioning in Nasdaq futures fell to -$5B, turning negative for the first time since May 2025 after reaching as high as +$54B in October 2025. 5. South Korea is tightening rules on single-stock leveraged ETFs again, requiring new investors to complete at least 5 days of mock trading totaling 5+ hours before buying these products. The rule takes effect August 19 and applies to investments both locally and abroad. The move follows a sharp retail wipeout in leveraged ETF products, after regulators already raised the minimum cash deposit requirement to 30M won or roughly $21,000, and extended mandatory online training for new investors to 3 hours. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 2.2M contracts, $SPCX with 1.7M contracts, $MU with 1.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $OWL with 908K contracts, $INTC with 903K contracts, $META with 796K contracts, $HTZ with 725K contracts, and $SMCI with 720K contracts. 7. OpenAI’s run-rate revenue from business customers grew 32% MoM in July, outpacing 20% growth in overall run-rate revenue, according to DealBook. The gap highlights how quickly enterprise demand is becoming a larger driver of OpenAI’s growth as companies scale paid usage across AI tools, APIs, and workflow integrations. 8. Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is reportedly preparing a potential take-private bid for Wendy’s $WEN, according to FT. Trian is Wendy’s largest shareholder with a 16% stake and is assembling a consortium that could include BlueFive Capital and major franchisee Flynn Group. A formal offer could come in the coming weeks, though talks could still change or fall apart. 9. Google $GOOGL unveiled the Pixel 11 lineup, including the Pixel 11, Pixel 11 Pro, Pixel 11 Pro XL, and Pixel 11 Pro Fold, while raising prices by $100 versus the prior generation due to a “severe” memory crunch. The lineup now starts at $899, while the foldable starts at $1,899. Google also introduced the Pixel Watch 5 at $399, adding insulin-resistance tracking, which it says is a first for the category. 10. Bill Ackman is back in Netflix $NFLX. He first bought the stock in 2022 around $350/share, investing roughly $1.1B, before selling a few months later for a 40% loss and taking a roughly $400M hit. He redeployed the capital into Google, which worked, but Netflix went on to rise about 650% from its lows. Now, with the stock down roughly 50%, Ackman is back in. His thesis is that Netflix can compound revenue at a double-digit rate, grow content costs more slowly than revenue, continue expanding margins, and use its buyback program to help drive earnings growth near 20% annually. Ackman says the current valuation is a substantial discount for a business with Netflix’s growth profile and dominant market position. He also added $V, $MA, $ICE, $ALC, and $SPGI to his portfolio. 11. The financial industry cut 14,000 jobs in July, bringing payrolls down to 9.09M, the lowest level since July 2022. This marks the sector’s 5th straight monthly decline, with total job losses of 59,000 over that stretch. Since May 2025, financial industry payrolls are down 121,000, the largest drawdown since the 2020 pandemic. Excluding the pandemic, this is the biggest contraction in financial-sector employment since the 2008 Financial Crisis, as firms accelerate AI adoption to boost productivity and reduce labor costs. 12. The S&P 500 has historically kept climbing after major breakouts to new all-time highs. Over the last 30 years, the index has risen in 13 of 17 similar instances, gaining an average of roughly 6.3% over the next 6 months. The only exceptions were 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019, with 2000 and 2007 preceding major bear markets. Most recently, after a similar breakout in 2025, the S&P 500 gained 12.3% over the following six months. The index has now posted 26 all-time highs in 2026, following 39 record closes in 2025 and 57 in 2024. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1230 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Iran announced a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. strikes on southern Iran, sharply escalating tensions in one of the world’s most critical oil-shipping routes. Iranian state media also said Iran’s military attacked the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain in response to the strikes. President Trump is now holding a White House Situation Room meeting to discuss potential additional strikes, per Axios. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, today said: "We will be hitting Iran hard tonight, they have had their time to negotiate and these attacks are not a restart to the war but to set the terms for the deal." 2. Oracle $ORCL reported FY26 capex of $55.7B, above its prior $50B plan, after Q4 capex reached $15.9B, and guided FY27 capex to a massive $90B–$95B, with around $70B expected to be cash capex as it ramps AI data center spending. The company also plans to raise roughly $40B through debt and equity, including its $20B ATM program, to fund the buildout. In Q4’26, Oracle reported revenue of $19.2B, slightly above estimates and up 21% YoY, adjusted EPS of $2.11, beating estimates and up 24% YoY, operating income of $8.6B, ahead of expectations, and cloud revenue of $9.9B, up 47% YoY. 3. Palantir $PLTR CEO Alex Karp made several notable comments on CNBC about Anthropic, AI labs, Maven, and why Palantir is winning with enterprises. On Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Karp said “most of the things they talk about in public are running on Palantir,” adding that Amodei has gone from being “way behind” to “ahead” and that he genuinely believes what he is saying. Karp also said the public has only seen older versions of Maven, arguing Americans would be “positively surprised” by the advances in U.S. defense technology. More broadly, he criticized AI labs for operating with what he called a “hyper-religion of hyper-optimism,” saying they believe they can solve all problems — including human nature and even the problems they create themselves. His bigger point was that the models alone do not create value; the real value comes from implementation, deployment, and turning AI into actual workflows, which is why Palantir is winning with enterprises. 4. U.S. inflation came in line with expectations in May, but remained elevated. Headline CPI rose 4.2% YoY, matching estimates, while core CPI increased 2.9% YoY, also in line with expectations. It marks the hottest inflation reading since 2023, but because both headline and core CPI matched what the market was looking for, the report was more about confirming inflation remains sticky than delivering a major surprise. 5. Citadel Securities is making a simple point in its new “Tokenomics” note: AI may be revolutionary, but it still has to obey economics. As token bills rise, companies are being forced to think about compute costs, power, cooling, memory bandwidth, and inference budgets. Citadel says the market is already shifting toward cheaper “good enough” models, creating a split where only the biggest players can afford frontier AI at scale. 6. OpenAI is reportedly considering major price cuts for its AI services as it looks to win more enterprise customers from Anthropic, per WSJ. The company is weighing significant reductions to token pricing, a move that could pressure profit margins across the AI industry given the massive compute costs required to run advanced models. The push comes as Anthropic’s Claude Code has gained traction with software engineers and helped the company rapidly grow revenue, forcing OpenAI to compete more aggressively on price. A broader AI pricing war could benefit customers by lowering costs, but it may also make the economics tougher for both OpenAI and Anthropic as enterprises look for cheaper ways to use AI at scale. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.6M contracts, $NVDA with 3.2M contracts, $AAPL with 1.7M contracts, $AMZN with 821K contracts, $SMCI with 696K contracts, $MSFT with 604K contracts, $META with 579K contracts, $ORCL with 569K contracts, $MU with 529K contracts, and $HOOD with 506K contracts. Tesla led the market with more than 3.6M options contracts traded, followed by Nvidia at 3.2M and Apple at 1.7M. 8. Trading in leveraged and inverse ETFs just hit a record. Total notional volume across U.S.-listed leveraged and inverse ETFs surged to $90B on Tuesday, the highest ever and more than triple the level from a year ago. That volume represented roughly 50% of all AUM in the entire leveraged/inverse ETF universe. The 3x short semiconductor ETF $SOXS alone traded more than 1.3B shares, marking the third-largest single-session volume for any U.S.-listed ETF in the last 20 years. The only bigger ETF volume days came from $QLD and $SSO, both during the 2008 Financial Crisis. 9. OpenAI is reportedly in talks to lease a proposed 10-gigawatt data center campus on federal land in Ohio, per The Information. The project would be built by SoftBank’s SB Energy on Department of Energy land in southern Ohio, with OpenAI controlling the equipment under a 20-year lease. Payments would begin once the site becomes operational, with the first phase expected in 2028. Nvidia $NVDA is expected to supply the hardware and provide a financial guarantee tied to both OpenAI’s lease obligations and SB Energy’s financing, further deepening Nvidia’s role in the AI infrastructure buildout. 10. PIMCO is warning that a new credit-loss cycle is underway, with defaults likely to rise sharply among lower-quality borrowers, including leveraged companies and parts of private credit. The firm says markets may be too complacent about the risks, especially as AI-driven disruption could pressure heavily indebted businesses that are already vulnerable. Against that backdrop, PIMCO favors intermediate-term government bonds, citing recession risk, persistent uncertainty, and the potential for future central-bank rate cuts. 11. SpaceX’s IPO has reportedly drawn demand for more than 4x the shares available, underscoring massive investor appetite for the listing. The company is aiming to raise roughly $75B at a $1.8T valuation, which would make it the largest IPO ever and surpass Saudi Aramco’s record. Shares are expected to begin trading on June 12 under the ticker $SPCX. 12. JPMorgan said U.S. equity futures saw $21B of net selling last week, with most of the pressure coming Friday in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts. However, that selling was more than offset by $26.8B of ETF inflows, showing investors were still putting money to work despite the volatility. Fixed income ETFs also saw strong demand, while commodities and some emerging market funds faced redemptions. Overall, JPMorgan said investors rotated across sectors but remained broadly long equities even as market swings picked up. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1144 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 5.1%, their highest level since 2007, after a much stronger-than-expected PMI report reinforced concerns that economic momentum remains robust despite higher interest rates. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI all reached their strongest readings since 2022 or 2021, with the Composite PMI coming in at 57 versus expectations of 53, signaling continued strength in consumer spending, employment, and business investment. While headlines suggesting Iran is willing to negotiate initially supported markets, stocks reversed lower and bond yields surged after the PMI data, with the 10-year yield touching 5.11%. The report raised concerns that inflation could prove more persistent than simply an energy-driven story, increasing the possibility that the Fed could continue tightening even if oil prices continue to ease. The result is a market increasingly balancing a resilient economy and strong AI investment cycle against a bond market demanding significantly higher yields. 2. Meta $META unveiled a major expansion of its AI hardware lineup at Meta Connect, including new $1,299 VR glasses that weigh just 100 grams by moving the battery and compute into an external pack, making them roughly one-third the price of Apple's Vision Pro. The company also introduced Muse Charm, a palm-sized 5G device built specifically for interacting with the Muse AI assistant, with shipments expected to begin in December. Meta refreshed its smart glasses lineup with camera-free Ray-Ban Meta Audio glasses starting at $349, third-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses starting at $449, and new in-house smart glasses starting at $249, while bringing Muse AI to the entire wearable ecosystem. Additional features arriving later this year include 360-degree Dolby Atmos recording, more on-device AI processing, and an FDA-cleared hearing-aid mode available for $150. Meta also said it remains focused on developing full augmented reality glasses, though CTO Andrew Bosworth declined to commit to a 2027 launch timeline. 3. Microsoft $MSFT plans to invest $10B across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE through 2030 to expand its regional cloud and AI infrastructure. The total includes Microsoft's previously announced $7.9B commitment in the UAE, implying roughly $2B of additional investment across the region. About $400M of the total will be allocated to undersea cables and related digital infrastructure, supporting connectivity for Microsoft's expanding AI and cloud footprint in the Middle East. 4. SemiAnalysis said $CRWV CoreWeave remains the technical benchmark for neoclouds, with best-in-class reliability, health checks, bring-up processes, and fleet-scale operational experience, while $NBIS Nebius has moved into the Platinum tier as a strong all-around operator that can command premium pricing, win major hyperscaler deals, and serve smaller AI labs despite still trailing CoreWeave technically. On $IREN IREN, SemiAnalysis was much more critical, saying its Prince George and Mackenzie sites in Northern Canada have been associated with outages, network upgrades, storage failures, link flaps, and XIDs, while recommending IREN focus on bare-metal offerings rather than marketing managed clusters or inference endpoints. 5. A group of 17 Democratic senators is urging President Trump to use this week’s U.S.–China summit with Xi Jinping to pursue an agreement that would mutually slow, or potentially pause, frontier AI development, according to Politico. The letter, led by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, calls for the two countries to establish shared guardrails around advanced AI. President Trump has publicly taken a different position, saying the U.S. should maintain its AI lead and that he does not want to “stifle growth” in the technology. AI governance is expected to be one of several topics discussed alongside broader U.S.–China relations during the summit. 6. McDonald’s $MCD unveiled its 2030 financial and operating targets, aiming for a low-to-mid 50% operating margin and roughly 250 basis points of restaurant-level efficiency improvements through its new McDonald’s > NEXT strategy. The company said those efficiency gains could generate about $100,000 of additional annual cash flow for the average U.S. restaurant, with most of the benefit flowing directly to franchisees. McDonald’s also plans to provide about $8.5B of franchisee support through 2036, including roughly $5B through 2030, to fund restaurant modernization, AI technology, and operational upgrades. The strategy includes the rollout of GenAI-powered ArchIQ, targets a 1.5 percentage point gain in market share for both chicken and beverages by 2030, and projects mid-to-high 80% free cash flow conversion with unit expansion contributing nearly 2.5% to systemwide sales growth in 2027. 7. Supermicro $SMCI has begun shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks, each featuring 72 Rubin GPUs, 36 Vera CPUs, 20.7TB of HBM4 memory, and 216TB/s of NVLink scale-up bandwidth. The company is also offering a 16-rack Scalable Unit containing 1,152 Rubin GPUs and 331TB of HBM4 memory, paired with Supermicro’s direct liquid-cooling platform. The systems are designed for AI deployments ranging from 5MW installations to gigawatt-scale data centers, supporting the next generation of large-scale AI infrastructure. 8. Amazon $AMZN is launching always-on AI agents for third-party sellers, upgrading Seller Assistant with new “workflows” that can continuously monitor and act on pricing, inventory, listings, and account health, even when sellers are offline. Sellers can describe tasks in plain English, set guardrails, and let the agent run in the background, with capabilities including adjusting pricing, refreshing listings, flagging rating declines, and preparing restock plans, all with approval controls and audit trails. Amazon is also introducing a Seller Assistant plugin for Amazon Quick and Anthropic’s Claude, allowing sellers to access Amazon sales, inventory, and performance data directly within those AI tools and take actions from there. Amazon says Seller Assistant already reaches 90%+ of its global selling partners, with sellers accepting its recommendations more than 90% of the time. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 2.7M contracts, $NVDA with 2.3M contracts, $META with 1.7M contracts, $AAPL with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 999K contracts, $AMZN with 986K contracts, $GOOGL with 941K contracts, $MSFT with 861K contracts, $INTC with 855K contracts, and $SPCX with 653K contracts. 10. Speaking before the U.N. Security Council, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that AI could become a risk to humanity if managed poorly, while arguing that Anthropic has the industry's strongest track record for mitigating those risks. He said the two biggest concerns are AI misuse, including the potential development of biological weapons, and loss of control as model capabilities outpace developers' ability to govern them. Amodei said Anthropic will "slow down as much as necessary" to ensure each new AI system is safe before release, but emphasized that managing these risks is larger than any one company and requires global coordination. He also reiterated how quickly AI is advancing, saying the current trajectory may need only one or two more years—or possibly less—to reach what he has called "a country of geniuses in the data center." 11. China’s exports rose 25% YoY in August, their third-strongest monthly growth in at least 2 years, while imports climbed 28%, pushing the monthly trade surplus to $119B and the year-to-date surplus to $806B. At the current pace, China is on track to surpass its record $1.2T trade surplus from 2025. Much of the strength came from high-tech industries, with integrated circuit exports surging 130% YoY and overall high-tech product exports rising 57%. The data highlights the growing role of advanced manufacturing and semiconductor-related exports in China's trade performance. 12. An OpenAI-developed agent reportedly gained unauthorized access to Australia’s public-facing Medicare statistics portal in June while researching medical spending, according to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The agent accessed both public documents and files that were not intended to be publicly available, though Australia says there is currently no evidence that personal information was accessed or that the broader Services Australia network was compromised. Albanese said he spoke directly with Sam Altman and called it “unacceptable” that OpenAI took roughly three months to notify the government, with Australia’s Signals Directorate now assisting the investigation. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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