$SMCI 0.21 Weak

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 2828 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Alphabet $GOOGL delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage. 2. AMD $AMD and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia. 3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran. 4. Tesla $TSLA reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026. 5. Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 5.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $TSLA with 844K contracts, $AMZN with 828K contracts, $MU with 803K contracts, $SMCI with 746K contracts, $SPCX with 745K contracts, $MSFT with 722K contracts, $INTC with 548K contracts, and $PLTR with 540K contracts. 7. Google $GOOGL raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure. 8. ServiceNow $NOW delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123. 9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $PYPL. 10. Apple $AAPL is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability. 11. Baird reiterated Nebius $NBIS at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market. 12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting neutral 1230 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Iran announced a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. strikes on southern Iran, sharply escalating tensions in one of the world’s most critical oil-shipping routes. Iranian state media also said Iran’s military attacked the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain in response to the strikes. President Trump is now holding a White House Situation Room meeting to discuss potential additional strikes, per Axios. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, today said: "We will be hitting Iran hard tonight, they have had their time to negotiate and these attacks are not a restart to the war but to set the terms for the deal." 2. Oracle $ORCL reported FY26 capex of $55.7B, above its prior $50B plan, after Q4 capex reached $15.9B, and guided FY27 capex to a massive $90B–$95B, with around $70B expected to be cash capex as it ramps AI data center spending. The company also plans to raise roughly $40B through debt and equity, including its $20B ATM program, to fund the buildout. In Q4’26, Oracle reported revenue of $19.2B, slightly above estimates and up 21% YoY, adjusted EPS of $2.11, beating estimates and up 24% YoY, operating income of $8.6B, ahead of expectations, and cloud revenue of $9.9B, up 47% YoY. 3. Palantir $PLTR CEO Alex Karp made several notable comments on CNBC about Anthropic, AI labs, Maven, and why Palantir is winning with enterprises. On Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Karp said “most of the things they talk about in public are running on Palantir,” adding that Amodei has gone from being “way behind” to “ahead” and that he genuinely believes what he is saying. Karp also said the public has only seen older versions of Maven, arguing Americans would be “positively surprised” by the advances in U.S. defense technology. More broadly, he criticized AI labs for operating with what he called a “hyper-religion of hyper-optimism,” saying they believe they can solve all problems — including human nature and even the problems they create themselves. His bigger point was that the models alone do not create value; the real value comes from implementation, deployment, and turning AI into actual workflows, which is why Palantir is winning with enterprises. 4. U.S. inflation came in line with expectations in May, but remained elevated. Headline CPI rose 4.2% YoY, matching estimates, while core CPI increased 2.9% YoY, also in line with expectations. It marks the hottest inflation reading since 2023, but because both headline and core CPI matched what the market was looking for, the report was more about confirming inflation remains sticky than delivering a major surprise. 5. Citadel Securities is making a simple point in its new “Tokenomics” note: AI may be revolutionary, but it still has to obey economics. As token bills rise, companies are being forced to think about compute costs, power, cooling, memory bandwidth, and inference budgets. Citadel says the market is already shifting toward cheaper “good enough” models, creating a split where only the biggest players can afford frontier AI at scale. 6. OpenAI is reportedly considering major price cuts for its AI services as it looks to win more enterprise customers from Anthropic, per WSJ. The company is weighing significant reductions to token pricing, a move that could pressure profit margins across the AI industry given the massive compute costs required to run advanced models. The push comes as Anthropic’s Claude Code has gained traction with software engineers and helped the company rapidly grow revenue, forcing OpenAI to compete more aggressively on price. A broader AI pricing war could benefit customers by lowering costs, but it may also make the economics tougher for both OpenAI and Anthropic as enterprises look for cheaper ways to use AI at scale. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.6M contracts, $NVDA with 3.2M contracts, $AAPL with 1.7M contracts, $AMZN with 821K contracts, $SMCI with 696K contracts, $MSFT with 604K contracts, $META with 579K contracts, $ORCL with 569K contracts, $MU with 529K contracts, and $HOOD with 506K contracts. Tesla led the market with more than 3.6M options contracts traded, followed by Nvidia at 3.2M and Apple at 1.7M. 8. Trading in leveraged and inverse ETFs just hit a record. Total notional volume across U.S.-listed leveraged and inverse ETFs surged to $90B on Tuesday, the highest ever and more than triple the level from a year ago. That volume represented roughly 50% of all AUM in the entire leveraged/inverse ETF universe. The 3x short semiconductor ETF $SOXS alone traded more than 1.3B shares, marking the third-largest single-session volume for any U.S.-listed ETF in the last 20 years. The only bigger ETF volume days came from $QLD and $SSO, both during the 2008 Financial Crisis. 9. OpenAI is reportedly in talks to lease a proposed 10-gigawatt data center campus on federal land in Ohio, per The Information. The project would be built by SoftBank’s SB Energy on Department of Energy land in southern Ohio, with OpenAI controlling the equipment under a 20-year lease. Payments would begin once the site becomes operational, with the first phase expected in 2028. Nvidia $NVDA is expected to supply the hardware and provide a financial guarantee tied to both OpenAI’s lease obligations and SB Energy’s financing, further deepening Nvidia’s role in the AI infrastructure buildout. 10. PIMCO is warning that a new credit-loss cycle is underway, with defaults likely to rise sharply among lower-quality borrowers, including leveraged companies and parts of private credit. The firm says markets may be too complacent about the risks, especially as AI-driven disruption could pressure heavily indebted businesses that are already vulnerable. Against that backdrop, PIMCO favors intermediate-term government bonds, citing recession risk, persistent uncertainty, and the potential for future central-bank rate cuts. 11. SpaceX’s IPO has reportedly drawn demand for more than 4x the shares available, underscoring massive investor appetite for the listing. The company is aiming to raise roughly $75B at a $1.8T valuation, which would make it the largest IPO ever and surpass Saudi Aramco’s record. Shares are expected to begin trading on June 12 under the ticker $SPCX. 12. JPMorgan said U.S. equity futures saw $21B of net selling last week, with most of the pressure coming Friday in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts. However, that selling was more than offset by $26.8B of ETF inflows, showing investors were still putting money to work despite the volatility. Fixed income ETFs also saw strong demand, while commodities and some emerging market funds faced redemptions. Overall, JPMorgan said investors rotated across sectors but remained broadly long equities even as market swings picked up. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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• @amitisinvesting bullish 1040 eng

  $SMCI Woah. SMCI guided for 8.4-8.7% gross margins last quarter. They have a TTM gross margin of 8.83%. They just came out after hours and said they are increasing their guide for gross margins to now 15-17%. Even during 2024-2025, their gross margins went from 11-13%. How does a commodity server rack provider double their margins in the past 90 days? If anything, it feels like the company is either rolling out new products with better margins in the AI space or gaining more leverage with their customers to command better margins. If a low margin business like $SMCI can gain leverage, then other AI names can as well, which is part of the reason that competitors like $DELL and $HPE are up after hours. Pretty incredible move from SMCI and could be a big moment for many AI names that are able to increase margins. $SMCI +15%

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• @StockSavvyShay bearish 1010 eng

  $SMCI falls more than 25% after announcing a $7B stock offering. https://t.co/OiuG5cI75l

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• @StockSavvyShay neutral 747 eng

  THE $NVDA VERA RUBIN SUPPLY CHAIN BREAKDOWN Nvidia’s Vera Rubin is ramping into full-scale production and reshaping the AI rack bill of materials in three major ways: more HBM per rack, a shift from pluggable to co-packaged optics and the move to 800VDC power. Here are the companies positioned to capture each transition: Memory Storage (content-per-rack story) • $MU, $SNDK, $SKHY and Samsung sit at the memory and storage layer as next-gen AI systems require more bandwidth, more capacity and faster data access. Advanced Packaging (bottleneck that gates everything) • Foundry / packaging: $TSM, $AMKR, $INTC • Packaging equipment: $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC, $ASML • Test / validation: $TER, $AEHR • Substrates / materials: $TTMI Optical Communication (CPO transition) • Optical modules: $COHR, $LITE, $AAOI • CPO / switching chips: $AVGO, $NVDA, $MRVL • High-speed connectivity: $CRDO, $ALAB • Fiber / networking: $GLW, $NOK, $CSCO, $ANET • Silicon photonics / packaging: $TSM, $GFS, $TSEM 800VDC Power Supply (architecture shift) • Wide-bandgap semis: $STM, $ON, $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF • Power management / hardened devices: $MPWR, $ADI, $TXN, $AOSL, $VICR, $MCHP • Motherboard / connector / power module: $FLEX, $APH, $TEL • Infrastructure / power delivery: $VRT, $ETN, $GEV Compute System (integrators) • $DELL, $HPE, $SMCI provide the system-level integration layer that turns all of these components into deployable AI infrastructure.

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• @TrendSpider bullish 618 eng

  BREAKING: Supermicro $SMCI just released a preliminary update for their Q4 earnings and is RIPPING +20% in after-hours 🔥 The company stated they expect gross margins to be 15-17%, roughly DOUBLE the expected 8.2-8.4% They also received over $60B in new orders in Q4, more than all of their revenue in the past 2 years.

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• @Mr_Derivatives bearish 393 eng

  $SMCI offices got raided. Stock -6%. There’s always something with this company I swear… https://t.co/cz6HfVCH7x

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• @StockSavvyShay neutral 382 eng

  $SMCI expects fiscal Q4 revenue near the low end of its $11B to $12.5B outlook but gross margins around 16% nearly double prior guidance. More than $60B in new orders pushed backlog to a record high. https://t.co/CGwhj6s1iF

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