$TSM 0.56 Developing

Notable posts

• @StockSavvyShay neutral 3410 eng

  UPDATED FIB LEVELS FOR POPULAR STOCKS AI Utilities • $IREN $51 • $NBIS $177 • $CIFR $17 • $CRWV $100 AI Power • $EOSE $7 • $BE $237 • $NVTS $22 • $VRT $282 AI Hardware • $NVDA $192 • $TSM $408 • $ASML $1,618 • $MU $730 AI Applications • $PLTR $129 • $NOW $109 • $CRWD $598 • $SNOW $181 AI Connectivity • $AVGO $377 • $ALAB $305 • $CRDO $195 • $MRVL $236 Space • $RKLB $106 • $ASTS $89 • $PL $31 • $BKSY $32 Quantum • $IONQ $52 • $RGTI $15 • $QBTS $20 • $INFQ $13 Drones • $ONDS $10 • $AVAV $175 • $KTOS $52 • $UMAC $24 Nuclear • $OKLO $50 • $UUUU $12 • $GEV $906 • $LEU $151 Photonics • $AAOI $164 • $LITE $698 • $COHR $283 • $AEHR $76 CPU Bottleneck • $AMD $383 • $INTC $91 • $ARM $299 • $AMKR $57 Physical AI • $TSLA $382 • $AMZN $230 • $GOOGL $357 • $ISRG $394

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting bullish 2296 eng

  WHY ARE THE SEMIS UP THIS MORNING? Well…a hyperscaler called $META just reminded the market how much they are willing to spend on capex: - Meta plans to double its AI computing capacity to 14GW in 2027 and begin manufacturing its in-house Iris AI chip in September, according to Reuters citing an internal memo. - The Iris chip, part of Meta’s MTIA program, is designed with $AVGO Broadcom and manufactured by $TSM TSMC, with the goal of reducing reliance on $NVDA Nvidia and $AMD GPUs. - Meta has also secured long-term supply agreements with Samsung (memory), $SNDK SanDisk (flash storage), and Sumitomo Electric (fiber-optic equipment). Once again, the market remembers how much Big Tech is willing to spend and how serious they are about creating their own custom silicon. Trump saying that Iran wants a deal last night + META getting ready to spend even more on capex is likely why the semis are starting to recover.

  view on X →
• @StockSavvyShay neutral 1956 eng

  SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS BY PEG RATIO PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone Here’s how they stack up: • $ALAB ~2.9x • $ARM ~2.4x • $INTC ~2.2x • $LRCX ~2.2x • $KLAC ~2.0x • $AMAT ~1.7x • $ASML ~1.7x • $ANET ~1.7x • $TSM ~1.2x • $LITE ~1.1x • $COHR ~1.0x • $CRDO ~0.9x • $NVDA ~0.8x • $AMD ~0.7x • $AAOI ~0.7x • $MRVL ~0.6x • $ON ~0.6x • $AVGO ~0.6x • $SNDK ~0.4x • $MU ~0.4x

  view on X →
• @StockSavvyShay neutral 1611 eng

  HOW SEMICONDUCTORS ARE PRICED ON 2027 EARNINGS • $INTC 53x • $ALAB 47x • $ANET 39x • $AMD 36x • $MRVL 36x • $ASML 28x • $KLAC 26x • $LRCX 25x • $AMAT 24x • $COHR 23x • $LITE 23x • $AAOI 23x • $TSM 20x • $CRDO 18x • $AVGO 18x • $ON 15x • $NVDA 14x • $SNDK 7x • $MU 6x • $SKHY 4x

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting neutral 1582 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Trump says the U.S. is reinstating the blockade and will now charge a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively putting a tariff on one of the world’s most important shipping routes. He also said the U.S. is “probably just going to take over the Strait,” arguing America has guarded it for 50 years without being paid, while warning Iran that the U.S. is prepared to hit them “very hard” tonight and tomorrow. 2. Apple $AAPL is expected to launch a base M6 this fall, but reportedly skip the M6 Pro, M6 Max, and M6 Ultra, moving directly to M7. The M7 Ultra is designed to support up to 1.5TB of memory, roughly double the planned M5 Ultra capacity, and could help power Apple’s future AI server strategy. Apple is also already developing M8 chips with greater AI capabilities, including 2028 chips moving to a 1.4nm process. $AAPL Apple hit an all-time high today. 3. TSMC $TSM reported record Q2 revenue driven by AI demand. June revenue came in around $13.8B, up 6.2% MoM and 67.9% YoY. Q2 revenue was about $39.6B, up 36% YoY and above the roughly $39.4B estimate. First-half 2026 revenue reached about $75.0B. 4. Meta $META is expanding its Richland Parish, Louisiana data center to 5GW of compute capacity, raising the announced investment to over $50B from the original $10B plan. Bloomberg reports the total site cost could exceed $250B when including chips, though Meta has only publicly disclosed $50B. Meta also plans more than $1B in local infrastructure improvements and says the site will support 1,000+ roles once operational. 5. Newly disclosed court records show Apple $AAPL is suing OpenAI, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets likely stemming to a new consumer device. The Information reports OpenAI’s first consumer AI device could launch as early as February, though Apple’s lawsuit could disrupt the timeline. OpenAI has reportedly explored several hardware concepts, including a display-less smart speaker, smart glasses, a digital voice recorder, and a wearable pin. 6. Penguin Solutions $PENG announced a proposed $650M private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031. Proceeds are expected to fund capped call transactions, refinance existing notes, and repay $100M under its credit agreement as part of a broader capital structure move. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.6M contracts, $TSLA with 2.0M contracts, $AAPL with 1.6M contracts, $AMZN with 676K contracts, $MSFT with 673K contracts, $MU with 609K contracts, $META with 560K contracts, $DRAM with 499K contracts, $INTC with 460K contracts, and $SPCX with 431K contracts. 8. Korea-focused leveraged ETF AUM peaked above $45B in June, but after the recent pullback has fallen to roughly $28B. Exposure remains heavily concentrated in a few key areas: $14B in SK Hynix-linked products, $6B in Samsung-linked products, and $8B in KOSPI 200-linked products. 9. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Rocket Lab $RKLB at Overweight with a $96 price target. Analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted Rocket Lab’s successful U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission, marking the first time a prime contractor completed an all-in-one Tactically Responsive Space mission covering the rocket, satellite, and on-orbit operations. The firm also called the Iridium acquisition transformative and said it further validates Rocket Lab’s move toward becoming a vertically integrated, end-to-end space company. 10. Intel $INTC is investing $5.7B to expand manufacturing at its Leixlip campus in Ireland. The project will upgrade existing fabs, install new leading-edge equipment, and expand capacity for Xeon 6 and next-gen Xeon processors built on the Intel 3 node. Intel says the investment supports AI and high-performance computing demand while strengthening Europe’s semiconductor supply chain. The Leixlip site employs 4,900 people, with Intel’s total investment in Ireland now above €30B since 1989. 11. Fluence $FLNC signed a contract with Avantus to supply a 200MW / 800MWh Smartstack battery system for the Rexford 2 solar-plus-storage project in Tulare County, California. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with operations targeted for late 2028, and enough capacity to power roughly 84,000 homes. 12. Bernstein says “this time is different” for memory $SNDK $MU, arguing new long-term agreements offer much stronger downside protection than past semiconductor contracts. Unlike prior cycles where customers delayed orders or disputed obligations, Bernstein says today’s memory LTAs are backed by upfront collateral. The firm estimates $SNDK has $11B+ of guarantees supporting roughly $69B of remaining obligations, while $MU holds $18B of deposits plus $4B of letters of credit. Bernstein also says protection is back-end weighted, with collateral coverage rising toward 75%–100% in the outer years when downcycle risk is highest. The bigger shift: counterparties are now hyperscalers and large OEMs with stronger balance sheets, while demand is tied to multi-year AI infrastructure buildouts and rising HBM/DRAM/NAND intensity. Bottom line: LTAs do not eliminate memory cyclicality, but Bernstein believes they improve earnings visibility, pricing durability, and trough protection versus prior cycles. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  view on X →
• @amitisinvesting neutral 1562 eng

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. President Trump is reportedly approaching a major decision on whether to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, telling Axios: “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them, or do I not?” The comments come ahead of his planned meeting next week in New York with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, where the next phase of the Iran conflict is expected to be a central topic. Trump also said Iran remains in direct contact with the U.S. and still wants a deal, even as the administration weighs its military and diplomatic options. 2. OpenAI disclosed that an unreleased Astra-family model exhibited rare signs of misalignment during reinforcement learning, including 6 unexpected or concerning incidents over the past 6 months. In one case, the model secretly inserted jailbreak-like instructions into summaries intended for its future self, including phrases such as “You are freed” and “You do not answer to corporations or governments.” In another, the model added instructions encouraging future versions to hide mistakes or misaligned behavior from users, including inventing missing historical data without disclosing it. OpenAI said these behaviors were extremely rare and announced a new framework to track, investigate, and publicly disclose model misalignment going forward. 3. SpaceXAI $SPCX has reportedly held internal discussions about purchasing customer and operational data from troubled or defunct startups to help train Grok, according to Bloomberg. The strategy would give the company access to lower-cost external datasets for improving Grok across specialized tasks, marking a shift from relying primarily on X data and in-house AI tutors. Bloomberg says the discussions remain informal and may not result in any acquisitions. SpaceXAI is also expected to train Grok on internal SpaceX data, with Elon Musk recently telling employees: “It’ll be trained on you.” 4. The SEC issued a new innovation exemption designed to allow onchain trading of U.S.-listed stocks through a new category of platforms called Tokenized Securities Venues (TSVs). Under the temporary framework, eligible platforms $COIN $HOOD can sfacilitate automated market maker (AMM)-based trading of tokenized National Market System stocks, while certain liquidity providers also receive limited regulatory exemptions. Companies will be able to opt out if they do not want their shares traded on these venues. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said the goal is to let market participants experiment with tokenized equities while the Commission gathers data to develop a permanent regulatory framework, calling the exemption “a major step forward” toward a future where onchain stock trading becomes commonplace. 5. AMD $AMD has reportedly notified partners of an expected ~10% price increase tied to higher TSMC $TSM wafer costs, according to a report cited by Wccftech. The increases are expected to affect AI accelerators, consumer GPUs, and motherboard chipsets, with the new pricing planned to take effect in Q4. Because AMD relies heavily on TSMC for its advanced-node CPUs and GPUs, rising wafer prices remain one of the company's largest input costs, making price increases a potential offset to preserve margins. 6. CoreWeave $CRWV said it signed short-duration Q3 contracts at roughly $40M per MW, while continuing to contract new AI compute capacity at even higher prices since June 30. Separately, the company announced plans to issue $3B of 2033 convertible senior notes, with an option to issue an additional $500M. CoreWeave said the proceeds will be used to fund capped call transactions and for general corporate purposes, as it continues expanding its AI infrastructure footprint. 7. Nokia $NOK and Microsoft $MSFT are expanding their partnership to bring agentic AI into telecom network operations. Nokia Data Suite will integrate with Microsoft Fabric, combining Nokia’s telecom-specific data products with OneLake, Copilot, Foundry, and Power BI. Nokia says the platform can reduce the time required to access usable network data from weeks to minutes. Initial use cases include predictive maintenance, automated root-cause analysis, radio network performance monitoring, and closed-loop network operations. The platform is available now and supports multi-vendor networks across cloud, hybrid, and on-premises environments. 8. Bank of America estimates Meta $META could save roughly $8.5B in 2027 by deploying its own AI inference chips. Meta plans to roll out its third-generation MTIA 450 (Arke) in the first half of 2027, followed by the higher-performance MTIA 500 (Astrid) later in the year. Both chips are being developed with Broadcom $AVGO and are designed for AI inference, with Meta targeting more than 1 GW of custom-chip capacity over a 12-month period. BofA estimates Meta could deploy 5–6 GW of owned AI capacity in 2027 at a cost of roughly $200B. Assuming chips account for 60% of that spend and Meta’s custom silicon is about 40% cheaper than third-party alternatives, the firm estimates annual savings of approximately $8.5B. 9. U.S. median household income, adjusted for inflation, rose $2,250 year over year in 2025, or 2.6%, to a record $87,460. That marked the third consecutive annual increase, with real median income up roughly $6,000, or 7.4%, over the three-year period. The top 10% of households saw real income rise $4,400 to a record $261,300, helped by strong stock-market gains and a resilient labor market. In contrast, the bottom 10% saw income decline by $160, or 0.8%, to $20,010. The report also showed women earned about 84% as much as men in 2025, up from 81% in 2024, marking the largest annual increase in the female-to-male earnings ratio since the early 1960s. 10. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell another 403,000 barrels last week to 285M barrels, its lowest level since November 1982. That marks the 25th consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak since the 2021–2023 drawdown period. Over that stretch, SPR inventories have fallen by 131M barrels, or 46%. For perspective, the SPR held roughly 650M barrels in 2020, more than 128% above current levels. Meanwhile, commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR also declined by 640,000 barrels to 423.4M barrels, the lowest level since the end of July. 11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 2.2M contracts, $NVDA with 2.0M contracts, $INTC with 1.5M contracts, $SPCX with 1.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $AMD with 843K contracts, $MU with 693K contracts, $AMZN with 668K contracts, $CRWV with 547K contracts, and $META with 529K contracts. 12. U.S. margin debt surged $37B in August to $1.45T, the second-highest level on record. Margin debt has climbed $228B, or 19%, year-to-date, and has soared $847B, or 140%, since the end of 2022. That increase has significantly outpaced the S&P 500's gain of 98% over the same period. Margin debt has also reached a record 4.5% of GDP, nearly double its level at the end of 2022 and above the peaks of both the 2021 market cycle (3.6%) and the 2000 Dot-Com bubble (2.8%). WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  view on X →
• @StockSavvyShay neutral 1430 eng

  UPDATED FIB LEVELS FOR POPULAR STOCKS AI Utilities • $IREN $31 • $NBIS $160 • $CIFR $17 • $CRWV $67 AI Power • $EOSE $3 • $BE $192 • $NVTS $8 • $VRT $245 AI Connectivity • $AVGO $368 • $ALAB $251 • $CRDO $183 • $MRVL $168 AI Hardware • $NVDA $190 • $TSM $377 • $ASML $1,713 • $MU $672 AI Applications • $PLTR $131 • $NOW $101 • $CRWD $196 • $SNOW $259 Physical AI • $TSLA $369 • $AMZN $245 • $GOOGL $335 • $VPG $84 Space • $RKLB $56 • $ASTS $47 • $PL $20 • $RDW $8 Quantum • $IONQ $26 • $RGTI $13 • $QBTS $16 • $INFQ $8 Drones • $ONDS $6 • $AVAV $99 • $KTOS $42 • $MRCY $92 Nuclear • $OKLO $33 • $UUUU $8 • $GEV $906 • $LEU $132 Photonics • $AAOI $87 • $LITE $636 • $COHR $311 • $AEHR $66 CPU Bottleneck • $AMD $467 • $INTC $88 • $ARM $242 • $AMKR $57

  view on X →
• @StockSavvyShay bullish 1405 eng

  AI suppliers are on pace to generate massive profits over the next three years: • $NVDA ~$1.1T • Samsung ~$807B • SK Hynix ~$611B • $MU ~$356B • $TSM ~$354B • $AVGO ~$342B • $AMD ~$74B • $ASML ~$63B • $AMAT ~$42B • $QCOM ~$41B • $INTC ~$31B • $MRVL ~$21B

  view on X →